The May 12th election has claimed its first victim arising from the results that it produced. The announcement by Pere Aragonès that he will not even be formally sworn in once again as an MP and that he is abandoning the political front line ends up, after his disastrous result, being irrelevant - and not because it is logical and expected. It is, in a way, a triple notification that provides some clues: firstly, that the Catalan Republican Left (ERC) is going to try to contain the hemorrhage with the person who is primarily responsible for the electoral fiasco and, in any case, seal off a toxic perimeter around the presidency area; secondly, closely linked to the resignation of Aragonès, is that in a hypothetical repeat election he would not be the ERC candidate; and, finally, that Oriol Junqueras has already taken control of the party and is going to try to impose a roadmap in which a left-wing tripartite government with Catalan Socialists (PSC) and Comuns-Sumar does not appear anywhere, at least for the moment.
Aragonès's resignation has not been long in coming, because, basically, it has been very predictable for days, in view of the projections for the Republicans in all the polls, except, coincidentally, the two public ones - from the CIS and the CEO - which, due to the large budgets they have, are the ones that should provide the most accurate data. He remains as acting president waiting for a candidate to be successfully invested, and we will have to wait and see when that happens and who it will be. It is clear that there is never just one single cause behind an election victory or defeat, but, in this case, three errors have penalized him: the most recent one is none other than the calling of an early election, catching his adversaries wrongfooted, but without having anything planned himself, either. He truly shot himself in the foot, because it was an unforced error; indeed, it ended up being a shot in an organ much more sensitive than a limb.
There was also the diffuse campaign model, in which the discussion turned to issues of management - difficult when portfolio holders such as the minister for business, Roger Torrent, and that of economy, Natàlia Mas, had been left off the party list and, instead, Tània Verge was in a prime position - as quickly as it also turned to proposals, with which they intended to set themselves apart as unique in the pro-independence space in order to compete with Together for Catalonia (Junts), and they had nowhere to go. Not to mention that the work of government, to be appreciated, has to be spotlit in a glass case to make it visible, and that was not the case. Finally, there is the delicate issue of leadership in which Aragonès has never achieved a pass mark. Although the easy answer may be that this is because of Junqueras's long shadow, the reality is far from that. If on top of all this we take into account that the expulsion or departure - the choice of word doesn't matter - of Junts from the Catalan executive weighed very heavily on the single party government, we will see that the perfect cocktail had been mixed.
An enormous difficulty is beginning to be perceived in constructing both a governing majority and an investiture. There is a certain aroma of pessimism, and a repeat election is not ruled out
Twenty-four hours after the polling stations closed, an enormous difficulty is beginning to be perceived in constructing both a governing majority and an investiture. There is a certain air of pessimism, and a repeat election is not ruled out. Probably, because it is the easiest option and does not force anyone to move at all. As the hours go by, it will be seen that this is the best scenario for the PSC. In fact, it is the one that would allow Pedro Sánchez to launch a new election in Spain, coinciding with the Catalan ones, if the European election goes reasonably well, to make a definitive attack on Junts and ERC in both Catalonia and Madrid, and finish off the task he started this May 12th. Hence, the PP is closely studying its results in Catalonia; it has risen from 3 to 15 deputies and in some arithmetical combinations it may have a part to play, as well as there being repercussions on the chess board of Congress.
Some final reflections: the seats lost by deputies for the CUP and Comuns in Tarragona, which have ended up in the hands of the PP, and that of the CUP in Lleida, which has gone to the Catalan Alliance, certify, in the first case, that the opposition to the Hard Rock resort was more in political and media fields than from the public, and the same with the opposition to the Winter Olympic Games in the Pyrenees. Of course that is not an absolute truth, but the irrefutable aspect is that those who said 'no' to these plans have lost their seats. And a final thought: are Junts and ERC going to pressure Pedro Sánchez and the speaker of Congress, Francina Armengol, to incorporate the amnesty law into the parliamentary agenda so that it is voted on or are they going to let it happen slowly? Because from this very Tuesday it can now be brought to the plenary session.