I suppose that after the local electoral commission for Barcelona rejected the appeal filed by Ada Colau against the results first announced last Sunday, May 28th and then ratified by the commission itself on June 2nd, the acting mayor will finally accept the results as the people of Barcelona have decided: that Xavier Trias won the elections in the Catalan capital with 11 councillors. Behind him, at the considerable difference of more than 17,000 votes and more than 2.6 percent of difference, is the Socialist, Jaume Collboni, and a few hundred votes further back, Colau. It is the first time in the twelve municipal elections that have been held since 1979 that a mayor running for re-election has not obtained it or, in the worst case, come in second place.
Maybe that's why Colau made so much effort to get that second position back, to the point that at certain moments it could have been interpreted, given the interest she put into it, that she questioned the count and its result. In fact, all the parties were surprised by the insistence of Barcelona en Comú and the fact that none considered that there was the slightest possibility that the Comuns' moves could end up making any difference, beyond an outlet for the frustration of the moment. This phase should have been brought to an end, since a politician is expected to logically defend their positions and rights, but also to be a good loser, accepting the results and assuming the reality.
It is clear that the results in Barcelona caused a real political earthquake because the time of the Colau-PSC binomial is now over. It also seems quite obvious that Barcelona en Comú will have to vacate the offices of the last eight years and that the client network that it has been creating has its days numbered. This is true not matter what conclusion is reached in the talks over the Catalan capital's new government team. Xavier Trias has made quite a lot of progress in negotiations with the Republican Left and in a few days has created a climate of trust with Ernest Maragall, with both leaders being aware that their power in the council is precarious, since the absolute majority is 21 councillors and between the two groups they only have 16 seats.
With his second position in the election race now 100% certain, Collboni has to decide between the three options that, for now, he has on the table. A complex negotiation with Trias - with whom he would reach just 21 votes - which will ensure him a slightly more important political profile than the one he has had with Colau during these two mandates. It is an option that the business sectors of the city want more than the two parties in question, but it has its possibilities with a mayor like Trias. Then there is the option of a Frankenstein government with the votes of Colau and an imperious gesture by PP or Vox, which the parties of the left would have to accept while holding their noses, but it would be nothing new, since they did exactly that in 2019 with Manuel Valls to prevent Maragall becoming mayor. Or - and this is the last alternative - go over to the opposition, something that does not seem to excite the Socialist candidate. The option of a left-wing government with ERC in it seems, for now, impossible. Later on? In politics anything is possible, although trusting it all to future circumstances is a risky strategy.
At the moment, even if relatively little is being made public about the contacts they have with each other, in practice everyone has met up with everyone else and the information is fluid enough between all the negotiators to know how the talks between them are progressing. In many respects, this week will be decisive in guiding the city council's constitutive session of June 17th, also keeping in mind one last point: that a tripartite government of Junts, PSC and ERC is impossible, since Socialists and Republicans veto each other, so that the balance will have to fall, in the end, on one side or the other.