This coming Wednesday, Pedro Sánchez is to ask Spain's Congress of Deputies for the fourth two-week extension of the country's state of alarm. It will be sufficient for the Spanish prime minister to win a simple majority in the parliamentary vote, and despite the great amount of noise being generated by opposition parties, and those who aspire to play some part in this complicated situation, it is very unlikely that the house will overturn the initiative. Suffice to recall that the third extension, requested on April 22nd, went ahead with an overwhelming vote for sí: 269 votes in favour, 60 against and 16 abstentions.
Since that day, however, several things have happened: firstly, the tyrannical use of this exceptional situation to annihilate, via unacceptable means, the most minimal capacity for devolved self-government has become more and more obvious; and, secondly, the Socialist executive has shown zero interest in agreeing on any response with the autonomous communities or the parliamentary parties outside the coalition partners, PSOE and Podemos-Commons. The state of alarm has not been a constitutional instrument to fight the coronavirus pandemic that has ravaged Spain and other parts of the world, but to centralize, and to remove powers from the autonomies.
It is not a question of being for or against the lockdown, as the prime minister would emotively have us believe, but rather of returning the response to the pandemic to the autonomous communities as soon as possible and for them to proceed to arbitrate the deconfinement in coordination with the state - in a much more rational way, and with a knowledge of the territory that the central administration does not possess. On Sunday, Sánchez held his regular information meeting with the regional presidents - an event that could almost be categorised as a mere political courtesy since the autonomous leaders are simply informed personally of what the PM has already announced the night before on television, and his speeches take the form of an inventory - but this time, in addition to the Catalan and Basque leaders, Quim Torra and Iñigo Urkullu, Galicia's Alberto Núñez Feijóo, and Madrid president Isabel Díaz Ayuso, both spoke out against the continuation of the state of alarm. With regard to its disproportionate use, there were statements from Andalusian leader Juan Manuel Moreno and Murcia's Fernando López Miras. Among the Socialist barons there have been criticisms from Francina Armengol (Balearic Islands), Javier Lambán (Aragon) and Emiliano García-Page, among others.
There is, therefore, very broad opposition, which Sanchez fears will end up converging before Wednesday into a parliamentary rejection of his proposal. That is why he has deposited, as on other occasions, a series of sweeteners on the doorsteps of the political parties, hoping that one or another of them will end up taking the bait. If there is a promise of billions out there, if we take a good look at this provinces question and put forward more money (or more promises) of state loans. All to gain time and maintain absolute power.
And meanwhile, the right is afraid that the pro-independence parties will have too much specific weight in decision-making at the same time as the independence parties are frightened by the growth of the right. This is the game that Sanchez plays better than anyone, suffocating any group that puts itself at his disposal, insisting that there is no alternative to the state of alarm and the single command - something completely false since current public health law has more than enough mechanisms to address the current situation. The legislative framework prior to the pandemic crisis would thus be restored and the dismantling of the regions would be put to an end.
In short, the alternatives to the state of alarm and the blackmail being used by Sanchez will end up having consequences for those who take part in the game. Because if there's one thing you can count on, it's that the PM will end up using the support he receives solely for his own benefit. You only have to look back over your shoulder and make a list of those he's previously left in the lurch.