With a little more than three weeks until the ballot boxes give their verdict, the poll on the Basque Country election on April 21st prepared by the Basque government's opinion research unit, which tends to have fairly high reliability in its forecasting, presents one major trend which is enormously revealing: the decline in support for the parties referred to variously as Spanish, 'Spanish nationalist' or 'constitutionalist'. Thus, while four years ago these parties - the Basque Socialists (PSE), the People's Party (PP), Elkarrekin Podemos and Vox won 23 seats, they are now predicted to win 17, a reduction of six in a chamber of 75 seats. Another significant fact: none of those four parties are growing in support and the last two are on the verge of disappearing. The survey only predicts that Yolanda Díaz's party, Sumar, has options to win a seat.
If these are the figures for this wide and diverse political space, expected to obtain a very modest 22.6% of the seats, it means that the two main Basque parties - the conservative Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) and the left-wing, pro-independence EH Bildu - will overwhelm all the other parliamentary groups, and together could win up to 58 seats. If one is to analyze the political outlook of a country and the parliamentary representation of its different parties, this is no minor matter. In fact, the strength of its unique political decision-making resides far away from Madrid and its decisional autonomy is very significant. One other aspect is also evident: both the PNV and Bildu - the first with the forecast of a slight fall in support and the second with a projection of very significant growth - have been able to connect with all sections of the Euskadi electorate, to the point of nearly driving out the rest of the political parties from the chamber in the capital of Vitoria-Gasteiz.
The normalization in the Basque Country and the political balancing in Madrid seem to give no other option than the continuity of the government between the PNV and the Basque Socialists
It remains to be seen, amidst fierce rivalry, whether it will the PNV or Bildu that comes out ahead. The first seems to have put a stop to the electoral hemorrhaging it was suffering a few months ago, when polling placed it clearly in second position. The long-established party led by Andoni Ortuzar seems to have made changes successfully, including renewing its candidate to be lehendakari (president), where the incumbent Iñigo Urkullu has been replaced by Imanol Pradales, and of the 31 seats it won in 2020, it could realistically aspire to lose no more than a couple. Right behind it would be Bildu, also with a new candidate, Pello Otxandiano, who is forecast to add eight more MPs to the current figure of 21. Either of these two Basque parties could finish first. But, on the other hand, it seems that only the PNV is in a position to be able to retain the presidency, since the Socialist parliamentarians - there will be around 10 of them - will guarantee the continuity of the presidency, if they keep their word.
The normalization in the Basque Country and the political balancing in Madrid seem to give no other option than the continuity of the government between the PNV and the Basque Socialists. A government between the PNV and Bildu, the type of coalition that we like so much in Catalonia, does not seem to be on the political table, since neither of the two parties seems to be pushing for an agreement. In fact, in the Basque Country, the Socialists continue to act as a hinge between the pro-independence parties, with the left-right axis still very important when it comes to distinguishing one from the other and preventing alliances, however easy they may seem when observed from a distance. Catalonia is not Euskadi for many reasons, and this circumstance is one of them. At least, in the more or less recent past.