As more time goes by, it can be seen that the Catalan election results of May 12th were much more complicated than could be analyzed at first glance. There was a winner, of course, because the difference between the first and second-placed parties and, much more so, with those who came third was wide enough to break the triple tie of February 2021 when two parties obtained 33 deputies, the Catalan Socialists (PSC) and the Republican Left (ERC), and one achieved 32, Together for Catalonia (Junts). The 42 deputies of Salvador Illa's PSC seemed to be a solid platform for the investiture of a president in the not too distant future, since independentism had lost the massive support that guaranteed it the absolute majority in Parliament. Junts was far behind with its 35 parliamentarians and the Republicans even more distant, winning only 20 seats in the chamber.
That photo remains arithmetically the same, but, on the other hand, it has changed in political significance. In part, because the ERC result opened up a new situation and has been reflected in a series of events that, in practice, mean that the party's rock-solid unity in decision-making has entered into crisis. Oriol Junqueras has left the presidency of the party with the will to return to the position later with more strength than he had. Marta Rovira has gained control of the organization, as she has added the position of number one to her duties as general secretary. The acting President of the Generalitat, Pere Aragonès, remains in the background of his own will, having renounced his seat in the new chamber and preparing to depart from institutional politics. And the rest of the leading figures can be quickly placed on one side or the other.
While all this is happening, other processes do not stop, and ERC, located at the focal point of many of the choices that end up determining the final political options, has to make those decisions in the worst of moments. And it is here that two challenges coincide in a circumstance that greatly resembles a crossroads. The taking of decisions on the orientation of politics in Catalonia, more towards the left (Illa) or more towards independentism (Puigdemont), but also internal choices: the preparation of the party congress on November 30th, a possible repeat election which would mean not having a clear candidate, and this very Thursday, the vote by the party members on whether or not to join Jaume Collboni's government at the Barcelona City Council. All this, with all that is entailed by the ever-difficult task of managing the grassroots of a political organization, but much more so in times of change, in a party that has got used to seeing such overhauls among its political adversaries, but not undertaking them itself.
The Republicans will be asked to make decisions, when what they need is to slow down movement of the ball and have a clearer perspective on what they have to do
In the first of the issues to be opened up, a Bureau of Parliament has been created in which the pro-independence parties have achieved a majority by four votes to three, which does not correspond to the composition of the chamber and in which ERC could have reached other accords and even obtained the speaker's position offered by the PSC. This has caused nervousness in the ranks of the Socialists, who have toned down their discourse a little and are no longer seeking an investiture of Illa as the first candidate, since May 12th was one thing and June 13th is another. The Republicans will be asked to make decisions by both sides, when what they need is to slow down the movement of the ball and obtain a clearer perspective on what they have to do. And for that, one needs time, wise choices and luck. Three things that will not converge in a few weeks. In part, because, in a cycle of electoral decline like the one just experienced by ERC - municipal, Spanish, Catalan and European elections - party memberships carry around a large amount of irritation and look at their leaders in a different light.
This Thursday, the Republican Left's Barcelona city leadership was overwhelmed in the momentous decision of whether or not to join the Catalan capital's government team. The decision was postponed for an understandable reason, that of venue capacity being well exceeded, but the final result was more uncertain than at first could have been foreseen after the wide margin of the executive's vote to approve the entry into the Collboni government, adopted by 20 votes in favour, 4 abstentions and 3 votes against. We will see how an issue as important as this evolves, it having been a decision by local management, and one which raised more than a few suspicions with national management. The pursuit of politics in times of crisis is anything but simple.