Since Spanish politics is as it is and Catalan politics is also awaiting the formation of alliances that will not see the light of day until after June 9th, the European election campaign is taking place amidst boredom, fatigue and the absence of proposals. It has usually gone more or less like this in the elections to the European Parliament that have been held in Spain. The last ones, in 2019, achieved a deceptive 60.73% turnout, but this was because they were simultaneous with the municipal elections in Spain, which raised the figure substantially, as had already happened in 1987 and 1999. In addition, in Catalonia, voter participation went up to 64.23% - almost four points more than in the rest of the state - partly due to the political situation in 2019 and the fact that Junts's candidate was Carles Puigdemont, in exile since 2017.
Except for that year, for the whole of this century, Spain has always had a turnout of just above 40%, much lower than that of countries such as Belgium, which hovers around 90%, or Luxembourg and Malta, which achieve around 80%. In an intermediate position would be Italy, above 50%, while France and Germany are at percentages similar to those of Spain. What will happen next Sunday? Everything points to the fact that turnout will be well below half of the electoral roll, and there are no signs that, unlike four years ago, Catalans will go to the polls at a higher rate than the average percentage across the Spanish state.
This, in part, is because the European campaign is strongly driven by the Spanish dynamic between the People's Party (PP) and the Socialists (PSOE) over the question of whether the former can rise with victory or if it will be such a pyrrhic triumph that the winner actually ends up being Pedro Sánchez. The polls agree on a victory for Núñez Feijóo's PP, but by just a few points, far from the seven percent they predicted a few months ago. This result may be determinant in the repetition or not of the Catalan election, if there is no agreement to invest a president, and as well, the calling of another Spanish general election - who knows, maybe even on the same day.
The European election result may be determinant in the repetition or not of the Catalan election, and even the calling of another Spanish general election
The negotiations between the Catalan parties are so discreet that it is even difficult to know if they are progressing, beyond what the messages that those with interests are trying to propagate. It also affects the composition of the Catalan Parliament's Bureau, which has even been postponed until the 10th, the day after the European elections, in order to keep secret the alliances that may be reached. The publication of the amnesty law in the official Spanish gazette also seems to have been left till after the EU vote, in a ploy by the Socialist government to delay the moment when the Supreme Court starts to express its opposition to the law by its actions. The PSOE knows that this will happen, but if it is after the elections, much better.
In the context of a campaign in which Spanish issues are being promoted, Together for Catalonia (Junts) and the Catalan Republican Left (ERC) do not hold the best cards. If last time Junts won three seats and ERC two, the polls are now closer to predicting that both parties might be left with just one seat rather than anything more. ERC, running within the Ara Repúbliques candidacy, with the Basques of Bildu and the Galician BNG, has the TV weatherman Tomàs Molina in fourth position and is fighting to get a place for him. Just as is Junts with Neus Torbisco in second place behind the candidate Toni Comín. With the list of Junts perhaps having the least possible resemblance to the post-Convergència space, and we will see how that is received by that party's electorate.