Salvador Illa has obtained a significant election victory this Sunday, May 12th and his Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) has achieved two of its main objectives: the distance from its main pursuer, Carles Puigdemont, is established at seven seats (42 MPs to 35) and more than six percentage points; and the number of pro-independence MPs is quite laughable, falling from 74 deputies in the previous legislature to the new combined figure of 59 from the Junts+ Puigdemont list, the Republican Left (ERC) and the Popular Unity (CUP). Catalan voters have endorsed Pedro Sánchez's policy of pacification and have done so even on one of the most chaotic days of the Rodalies rail services, which were not functioning across Catalonia during election day. For Illa's happiness to be complete, he needs to conclude a parliamentary agreement for his investiture as president and on the table, arithmetically speaking, there are only two possibilities: a new left-wing tripartite with 68 seats, the bare minimum for an absolute majority, or an agreement with Junts that would add up to 77, but that is beyond impossible.
It was obvious this Sunday that the pro-independence world had had enough, and it demonstrated that, even at the cost of shooting itself in the foot. The PSC has achieved the most resounding victory it has ever had in Catalonia, going beyond the 2021 tie with ERC, but also achieving a greater difference with its main competitor than in 2003 (Pasqual Maragall) and 2006 (José Montilla). And Illa also found another four-leaf clover in the results of this May 12th: for the first time since 1980, the Catalan nationalism of those years, converted into the independentism of today, will not have control of the Catalan chamber. The experts and the admirers of Catalan politics will no longer be able to say that, except in those first autonomous community elections, the Catalan national axis had always prevailed over the Spanish one. Not anymore.
For the first time since 1980, Catalan nationalism, now independentism, does not have control of the Parliament of Catalonia
After those main headlines of the night, it then has to be said that Illa still has a long way to go to become president of the Generalitat. ERC has told him, through words intoned by Pere Aragonès, that he can't count on the Republican party's votes, while all that Carles Puigdemont has done is to open negotiations with his former government partner to try to form a new pro-independence government. The two parties would have 55 deputies and would need 13 to reach an absolute majority, 68. With the four MPs of the CUP, there are still nine missing. It is, indeed, very difficult arithmetic. But, at this point, Puigdemont played the king of spades: reminding Pedro Sánchez that he too lost the election, but ended up returning to his place in the Moncloa government residence. It is true, but the PSC has a life of its own and interests of its own, as evidenced in 2003 and 2006. The president-in-exile only came second, but Junts achieved its best result since 2017 with a gain of 3 seats .
It is true that, in those earlier elections, Artur Mas did not have access to the weapon that Junts has in its hands, the power to topple the Spanish PM, but even so, the Catalan president-in-exile's bid seems difficult to consummate. Illa and the PSC are forced to make a move and the Socialist leader affirmed definitively that he will say to the new speaker of Parliament that, as the winner of the election, it is his right to be the first to present himself for investiture. The "President, president" chants at Socialist headquarters attest to something that is known and often forgotten: that the PSC is not ready to self-immolate and give up its chance to return to the Generalitat after almost 14 years and having achieved a victory that had until now escaped all of its candidates. We will see now how the party plays its hand, as well as the negotiating muscle that Junts and Esquerra can wield.
As for ERC, the result for Pere Aragonès is simply horrible. The party, with its 20 deputies, returns to the position of 2012 when it took 21 deputies. It is true that its candidature was not as competitive as it could have been, since party president Oriol Junqueras could not run as he is still banned from public office. ERC has a bleak horizon ahead of it that will require drastic measures sooner rather than later. Maybe even very quickly. The angry face of Junqueras on television leaves no room for doubt, as the images are never accidental, and although the party president stood beside Aragonès, he was a step back, in the background, yielding much of the spotlight to the current central core of the Catalan presidency. A repeat election would have as an incentive the possibility that Junqueras could stand, once the amnesty comes into force.
The PP, with 15 MPs, saves itself by overcoming Vox, which manages to keep its 11 seats. The Comuns and the CUP lose support and the Catalan Alliance gets only two seats, fewer than the polls had envisaged. In summary, Illa clearly has the pole position, but the circuit is difficult and has many bends. In spite of all that, today it is very difficult to see how victory can escape him.