If there is one place where the investiture of a new head of government is especially difficult it is in Catalonia. If you doubt that, ask the last three tenants of the Generalitat palace - Artur Mas, Carles Puigdemont and Quim Torra - who can provide extensive accounts of the vicissitudes of the hours prior to an investiture session. In the case of Mas, his famous "step aside"; in that of Puigdemont, the failed investiture of January 2018 and, in that of Torra, his sudden incorporation into office when it was not the most likely option. It will not be much easier for Pere Aragonès of the Republican Left (ERC), who on Friday will have the first opportunity to be elected by Parliament, now that the speaker of the chamber, Laura Borràs, has empowered him to present his programme in the chamber and obtain the votes necessary to be elected. The election of Aragonés ahead of the candidate from the election night winner on 14th February, Salvador Illa of the Catalan Socialists (PSC), has its logic because although the ERC candidate does not have his investiture guaranteed, what former minister Illa would have is an assurance of defeat, since the pro-independence deputies add up to 74 of the 135 seat chamber.
Up till Wednesday afternoon, the ERC candidate appeared sure of the 33 votes of his own party and the nine of the Popular Unity Candidature (CUP) bound together in a 42-seat agreement which, although still far from the absolute majority of 68 votes, theoretically has the possibility to continue on its path and end up including the 74 pro-independence parliamentarians - with the 32 of Together for Catalonia (Junts) who, for now, are abstaining. This is still the magic number in the pro-independence space, but the slow progress being made does not allow us to believe that either on the first ballot (Friday) or the second (Tuesday) this figure will be reached. And if this ERC-Junts front looks highly unstable and overhung by dark clouds which might open if an agreement were to be forced hurriedly, there has also been a certain commotion in the CUP in recent hours with regard to the pre-accord the party's negotiators had agreed to with the Republicans.
Key constituent groups within the anti-capitalist party such as Endavant have publicly distanced themselves from the accord, while Lluita Internacionalista had done so earlier. The reasons are diverse, although some factors that stand out are the absence of specifics and firm commitments, the dialogue table with the Spanish government to address the political conflict with Catalonia and the idea of a two-year stability agreement, with a motion of no-confidence to be faced in 2023 as a condition of continuing to make their way together. One question remains in the air: how on earth did the leaders of the CUP negotiate so that in the hours before the vote and while it was already being voted, the party grassroots could still decide to reject the agreement?
This Thursday at lunchtime the CUP is to announce the result of the vote it has conducted among its rank and file, but in view of the public positions expressed, it is not entirely ruled out that the programmatic agreement signed will be rejected. We'll have to wait and see, it's a matter of hours and the CUP is already used to script changes in Catalan politics. It seems difficult with the current elements in play that any real second-ballot investiture of Aragonès as president could be achieved that would ensure the initial goal: a stable government, a broad parliamentary majority and agreement on budgets. Junts does not seem willing to give its 32 votes to Aragonès if it does not reach a triple agreement on roadmap, government structure and distribution of ministries and none of its top leaders have any incentive to sign off on what they consider today would be a bad agreement. And those who might have some other incentive to do so are not at the hard core of the negotiation.