If the polls are correct, nothing will change in Euskadi or Galicia in the elections to be held on Sunday 12th July for the two autonomous regions which are also the territories of two of the Spanish state's three "historic nationalities". The respective presidents, Íñigo Urkullu and Alberto Núñez Feijóo, are both in a position to repeat their terms and the Basque Nationalists (PNV) and the People's Party (PP) are forecast to obtain results very similar to those of 2016, thus demonstrating, once again, their strength at the polls despite the circumstances of the coronavirus pandemic and the economic crisis.
Voters seem to be favouring stability, rejecting unknown adventures and showing themselves comfortable with conservative options. This situation will end up being especially detrimental to the left, which may once again emerge with a very poor result from the Galician elections - with Feijóo predicted to win 48% of the vote and an absolute majority of seats - and without any option to provide an alternative in the Basque Country either, where the Socialists (PSOE) will have to be content with being Urkullu's support crutch if the PNV chooses to align with Spain's governing party and not with EH Bildu, as seems very likely.
Among the many reasons for the left’s inability to be a real alternative is its difficulty in crafting a project that excites people and is credible. This, though, is no different from what is seen in Catalonia, where it is also easier for Socialists to build a discourse of counterattack than to draft a political project. That is why, election after election, the political map of Catalonia always awards a majority to pro-independence parties - now, and before the current era, to the nationalists. The same happens in the Basque Country and, in fact, in Galicia too - where a kind of regionalist party wins since Feijóo, as Fraga did before him, is the first to hide the acronym of the PP.
If Galicia and Euskadi are characterized by stability, the French municipal elections on the other hand leave the analysts to ponder the extreme right's win in Perpinyà, with the victory of Louis Aliot after gaining 53% of the vote and with 60% of voters failing to show up. Marine Le Pen and the far right have now taken possession of an iconic city of Republican France. And many said this would never happen. What will they say now?