The 21-page report issued by six judges of the Spanish Supreme Court's criminal chamber, in which they unanimously state their rejection to the granting of any kind of pardon to the Catalan political prisoners by the Spanish government, presents a rounded argument, admitting no palliatives, against applying the executive's measure of clemency. It is also, according to those best versed in this question, a prelude to what will end up happening if prime minister Pedro Sánchez fulfills his commitment, postponed several times, and before the summer, chairs a cabinet meeting that approves the pardons.
The mandatory report by the Supreme Court, which is not binding and has already been made its way to the government's Moncloa palace, is signed by judges Manuel Marchena, Andrés Martínez Arrieta, Juan Ramón Berdugo, Antonio del Moral, Andrés Palomo del Arco and Ana María Ferrer García. That the Supreme Court is not comfortable with the report they have had to draft is well known. And that they have tried to put it off as long as possible is also clear. The report is an argument that defends the sentence given in 2019, and a frontal attack on the Catalan pro-independence prisoners: because they continue to publicly defend that they would do the same thing again and because no remorse is seen for their breaches of currently in-force laws, according to the document.
The report prepares the ground for what will be the confrontation with the Spanish government, which Elisa Beni has explained magnificently in this newspaper (here, in Catalan). The pardon, if it ends up being granted, would be appealed in another chamber of the Supreme Court, the administrative disputes area. There is a precedent from 2013, although until that date there was no judicial literature on the matter. We are, therefore, facing a battle between the executive and the judiciary that will not be short, if the Sánchez government finally passes the pardon. It is obvious that with so much wear and tear likely for a measure that may only go halfway, the point is not that this fails to solve the problem, but rather that it will turn into such a convoluted path that it blurs the goals of the pro-independence government.
The Spanish political-media complex knows how to play its cards perfectly and the final debate will end up being Pardons Yes versus Pardons No as the maximum objectives. Getting out of this framing is fundamental, because otherwise the result will be none other than the removal of an amnesty and the right to self-determination from the list of Catalan independence demands before the first assault. The Spanish ecosystem is so strong that we should not lose sight of the ultimate goal, as Pedro Sánchez will end up pointing to the strength of the opposition rather than risk having his feathers ruffled. And this has already happened on other occasions.