No matter how much one reads and rereads the ruling delivered this summer by the Spanish Constitutional Court on the 2017 application of article 155 by the Spanish government after approval by the Senate; no matter how much one studies the conditions that must be met and confirms that there is no margin to try and activate it now, the fact is that the Madrid establishment, the source of inspiration for parties, the media, the judiciary and major companies will spend all this weekend discussing it. Not so much because of the calls by Albert Rivera and Ciudadanos (Cs), whose influence is rather minor except on television; nor is the source the Popular Party (PP), which does not want to hand the Socialists (PSOE) something it would consider a gift in an election campaign. But because the PSOE itself decided to place it squarely on the table at Friday's cabinet meeting. The acting government spokeswoman, Isabel Celaá, situated the re-imposition of article 155 as a hypothetical future option, although she added that it would require conditions to be met that do not apply today.
The first part of this assertion is much more important than the second which conditions it. To be prepared to impose 155 on Catalonia is more significant than evaluating whether or not the appropriate conditions apply, since such an evaluation, if the moment arrives, depend on the interpretation one wants to make. It has been claimed that field studies have been carried out on what impact the application of 155 might have on a Spanish election campaign and who would benefit most. It is hard to believe that a hypothetical suspension of Catalonia's self-government is one of the electoral option to be juggled, but the truth is that right now one no longer knows what to think. Among other reasons, because there are 44 days left until the election, so long that it is difficult to know what shape all the political parties will be in by 10th November.
Today the PSOE is experiencing a vertigo that a matter of days ago didn't exist, when the first surveys showed it on the up with a clear improvement in the polls and the option of choosing to govern with either Cs or Podemos, both in weakened states. Now, though, this is not so clear and the only certifiable movement is the significant rise of the PP, sucking votes away from Cs and Vox. The move made by acting prime minister Pedro Sánchez has been so shabby that it is not clear that he has not irritated a part of the left. Iván Redondo, the guru who pulls many strings in the Spanish government palace and the PSOE offices, may need some to resort to some electrifying scenarios over the next few weeks, since the exhumation of Franco could have less of an electoral effect than expected. The fear of a Vox which has fallen in popularity no longer exists, the economic crisis that is hanging over Spain could enter into the campaign at any time and in fact what is surprising is that the PP is not making more use of that. "Operation Errejón" - the formation of a new political option led by former Podemos figure Íñigo Errejón - looks like weakening the left-wing politician's ex-party, but it remains to be seen whether it actually does that or ends up also denting the Socialist ship. To speak, as some do, of the demobilization of the Socialist voter is no exaggeration right now.
Having reached this point, and with the climate that is being created, one can perceive that the PSOE will end up resorting to something as serious as article 155 depending on their needs. Just as they are doing, for example, when they ask the Catalan institutions to disassociate themselves from violence, as if they were protecting it or had protected it. The record of the Catalan independence movement and its leaders on rejection and condemnation of terrorism has always been irreproachable. The movement is radically peaceful. But if you can play games with that, in order to intimidate or out of electoral interest, what can you not play games with?