Do we need to prepare for a sixth wave? How virulent will it be when almost 75% of Catalans - and 84.1% of those over 16 - have now been fully vaccinated? Could any of the recent changes be rolled back and new measures be imposed in sensitive sectors due to the greater spread of Covid? We thought that these questions and others had been forgotten since the end-of-summer resumption of activity and now they have suddenly resurfaced in light of the behaviour of the outbreak risk index for the pandemic and the growth in the speed of infection. These figures are not yet worrying but some signals are starting to flash on and, if we look at previous experience, we know the end result and it is not a matter that allows us to be absolutely calm.
Although the experts do not agree on the evolution of current data, they do agree that the public holiday for All Saint's Day (November 1st) marked the beginning of this first autumn emergence of worrying figures. Among other things, because the castanyada, or chestnut festival of those dates, is the beginning of a cycle of festive days that will combine the pre-Christmas holiday break including the Day of the Spanish Constitution and that of the Immaculate Conception (December 6th and 8th respectively) with the Christmas holidays, which many homes are treating as "this year without fail", the necessary re-encounter after the exceptional family diaspora that took place in 2020 on those special days.
In any case, we must not lose sight of something so important as the level of vaccination coverage that Catalan society has achieved, among the highest in Europe. For example, more than ten points above countries such as Germany, the UK or France. Or almost 20 points more than the United States, Argentina or Brazil; not to mention the situation in European countries such as Bulgaria, where vaccination does not reach 23%; Russia and Romania, at 34%; Montenegro at 39%; Slovakia at 43%; Serbia at 44%; Croatia at 45% or Poland and Slovenia at 53%. This is our European setting at a time when mobility is beginning to reactivate.
The tools to combat the growth of the pandemic remain the same as in recent months: to insist again and again on vaccination as an act of solidarity with the whole population, who have voluntarily taken a step forward that in other countries has not occurred, and to give the importance it deserves to the Covid certificate, which could end up being a useful lever to successfully block the expansion of the virus that is beginning to be detected.
It is possible that the compulsory use of the certificate for nightlife venues will not be enough and its range will have to be extended. Anything is better than allowing a return to restrictions to carry the day, which, on this occasion, would be a sudden blow, no matter how small it might seem. Not even a minimum imposition is possible given the beating that the Catalan economy has taken. For this reason, the Catalan public authorities must repeat the vaccination message until blue in the face. It is the truly differentiating element in the face of the viral infection.