Is Spain really on the verge of an economic crisis? How is it possible that during the election campaign no emphasis has been placed on the enormously worrying suggestions of various indicators? How can you positively evaluate the latest EPA (Active Population Survey) on the first quarter of the year presented this Thursday and which, beyond showing an increase in unemployment, gives clear signs of the economy slowing down and which could be the harbinger of the destruction of hundreds of thousands of jobs? How should we analyse the Spanish right-wing parties, so obsessed with going to hunt independence supporters, forgetting the ABC of an election campaign and letting Sánchez off during two debates and two weeks without bringing up the economic risk? Might it be because, beyond Casado and Rivera's apocalyptic proclamations on the Catalan economy, unemployment has increased in Spain (from 14.45% to 14.70%) whilst in Catalonia it's decreased from 11.7% to 11.6%.
I read Santiago Niño-Becerra say that a labor force participation rate of 58% and unemployment at 14% was a mortal cocktail, regardless of what the economy minister might say who, as politicians always do, is denying the reality until the last moment. This was one of the reasons why prime minister Pedro Sánchez didn't want to extend the legislature beyond the summer and why he presented a bluff of a budget that he's been able to sell perfectly during the campaign but which the European Commission has already said it wasn't going to approve. He didn't mind since its role was as a decoy to be able to sell to the electorate a series of initiatives and proposals, many of which it's already known it won't be able to apply. The independence movement withdrew its support for the state's accounts (it had its reasons but wasn't right) and offered Sánchez a perfect opportunity to get play from and talk about a political rupture where there had never been an alliance.
Today, uncertainty is at least as high over the economy as over Sunday's election. Nobody wants to make a definitive prediction, even in private, and everyone has their own fears. None of the five Spanish parties have anything guaranteed and all have options to win or lose based on the handful of votes of the so-called "undecided" voters - a friend has corrected me and defined them to me with greater precision as "indecisive" voters. In other words, voters that decide one thing one day and the opposite the next. The same thing happens in Catalonia, where the volatility is also perceptible.
How can we detect this fear? Well, for example, by listening to Pedro Sánchez boasting about article 155 in Barcelona and the support he gave Mariano Rajoy to approve it in the Senate to wipe out the Catalan institutions and set off the exile and imprisonment of the Catalan government. Such strong comments weren't in the script two weeks ago, nor 48 hours ago in the televised debates. They are the indecisive ones, when election day is just around the corner.