The fact that for the third time the CUP (Popular Unity) has the ability to influence the formation of a pro-independence government and be crucial to its parliamentary majority, in accordance with the election results, has made the anti-capitalist party and its votes in Parliament - this time, nine - into an ally which is sometimes as uncomfortable as it is indispensable for both ERC (the Republican Left) and Junts (Together for Catalonia). The former feel comfortable talking about social issues with the CUP and get more concerned when they have to agree on timetables for a new clash with the state based on a referendum after ensuring that the institutions are aligned with those on the street. Meanwhile, the latter, in Junts, like the sound of the music when the left-wingers get ironic about the dialogue table with Pedro Sánchez or the urgency of Catalonia having state structures for this new attack and, on the contrary, they are much more distant in a significant part of the social agenda or the promised turn to the left.
The CUP has learned over the years to move in these discussions, keep up negotiations till exhaustion and keep pace with the two largest pro-independence parties. The 65 seats that ERC and Junts have won leave them three short of an absolute majority and both must make a virtue out of necessity, whether they like it or not. And here we are with 31 days having passed since the February 14th elections. Wednesday's press conference by the anti-capitalist group only highlighted what we already know: everything is going very slowly between the three parties. And, perhaps, for the first time, it should not be ruled out that, although there are 74 pro-independence seats, in the first investiture session of a candidate for president of Catalonia it might, surprisingly, be Salvador Illa who steps up. The Socialist has at his disposal, in theory, the votes of his 33 deputies and the eight of the Comuns. On the contrary, the candidate who is favourite to be president, ERC's Pere Aragonès, has not, for the moment, added any more to his total than his own party's 33 MPs.
A vote on Illa would be a failed investiture, of course, but the art of parliamentarianism needs its time and without the agreement of the pro-independence parties there will be no investiture of Aragonès until after Easter. The pace of the work agenda of ERC and Junts also reinforces this idea, which neither party has dared to verbalize in public but will no longer rule out in private. All this will be seen from the beginning of next week, when the speaker of parliament, Laura Borrás, will start talks with the leaders of the parliamentary groups and will hear their positions before proposing a candidate for the chamber.
At other times, this Catalan discord would generate rivers of ink, but right now the chaos of Spanish politics is of such size, with its epicentre in the conquest of Madrid, that Catalan politics is no longer under the spotlight, even for many of the Catalan media. One last note on the CUP conference: the insistence that they are willing to be part of the new government, an idea that candidate Dolors Sabater has advocated from day one and that has been gaining some followers. It seems difficult for this to end up becoming reality, because it does not excite either ERC or Junts - unlike the party's presence on the Bureau of Parliament - but it should no longer be ruled out altogether.