No progress has been made and the investiture is still a long way off. Nothing substantive has changed since Friday. These two phrases from different political leaders define very well what the situation is at the time of writing on Sunday night, when 36 hours are left before the start of the second parliamentary session and vote on Pere Aragonès's candidature for the presidency of the Generalitat of Catalonia. Although this time the candidate of ERC (Republican Left) needs only a simple majority - which he would get comfortably if the deputies of Junts (Together for Catalonia) moved from abstention to 'yes' - or with an even more unlikely movement of the PSC (Catalan Socialist Party) that no one expects from 'no' to abstention - there is nothing to suggest that either eventuality will occur.
Moreover, if there is one thing that has happened since the parliamentary session on Friday, when the first investiture failed, it is an accumulation of mutual accusations and criticisms among the two parties that, far from facilitating a speedy agreement, gives the impression that they are building up a supply of reproaches for the two-month period about to open in which they will try and make a deal. As happened last Thursday when Junts called its executive together to decide the way the party would vote at the investiture session, this Monday they will do so again. The internal movements that have taken place suggest more that some Junts leaders have moved from abstention to ‘no’ rather than from abstention to ‘yes’, where, theoretically, none of them are located.
In the case of ERC, the leaders continue to publicly defend the idea that there is time for agreement and that the differences are not as important as their former governing partners argue. A gesture of political maturity would be to put on the table the strategic documents of the legislature that have been exchanged so that everyone can understand the positions. Thus we could talk about the differences that really exist and not about the statements each side is making.
But while they stand up for a discretion in their negotiations that no longer makes sense, the investiture remains stuck and although this Monday, for certain, there will be last-minute moves, it is, frankly, an illusion to remain optimistic. Given that the entire pro-independence space, from the parties to the civil society groups, has made numerous proclamations about what an error it would be to waste the pro-independence vote of almost 52% on February 14th, perhaps thought should be given to incorporating some external figure to each of the parties so that ERC and Junts can escape from their vicious circle. It may be an impossible idea, but who knows if it might help them to conclude a deal.