The formalization of the agreement between the Spanish Socialists (PSOE) and the Catalan Republican Left (ERC) to allow Pedro Sánchez to lead a new government in Spain has two immediate interpretations: it brings the Socialist candidate closer to his goal of remaining in the Moncloa palace for four more years and it fully exploits the weight of the seven Republican deputies, which are essential in the investiture vote. In the already announced agreement on the proposed amnesty law between PSOE and ERC, the president of the latter, Oriol Junqueras, stated this Thursday when announcing the pact: "We have achieved an amnesty without exceptions". In politics, whoever strikes first, strikes twice, and although the amnesty claim is not exactly the case, since there are judicial cases that have not yet found their place in the bill, the Republicans have managed to set the tempo of the story.
To the accord over the amnesty, ERC has added the permanence of the dialogue table between governments, a strategic commitment by the Republicans which has yielded a meagre result so far but is a useful instrument if you use your political strength correctly; and the transfer of the Rodalies rail service and part of its infrastructure during the next legislature, that is over the period until 2027, which thus culminates the agreement started in 2009 and is a long-repeated demand from Catalan society. Although the fine print is known, since the agreement document has been made public, it will still be necessary to see where and how the obstacles are overcome and if the final will is really for the transfer to be comprehensive, which has to mean that everything is included. Apparently, the foundations have been established, but knowing the ways of the Spanish government, all prudence is necessary, as the recent past unavoidably obliges.
In the economic field, a debt haircut of 15 billion euros off the amount that Catalonia owed to the Regional Liquidation Fund (FLA) is significant - it is equivalent to 20% of the total debt, and will generate around 1.3 billion euros in annual interest that the Generalitat will also now save. There are also other financial items for the Mossos, justice and research. ERC is satisfied with the outcome of the negotiation, which means that it has optimized its seven deputies in Congress, improving the financial balance of the Generalitat and provided more financial resources that can now easily be devoted to education or healthcare. It is true that it does not open any path towards the fiscal pact, or at least, it is not written in the document as a commitment of a possible future Socialist government. The importance of the cancellation of 15 billion euros from the FLA debt can be seen by comparing it to the total Catalan government budget, which, for 2023, has a total expenditure of 41 billion euros.
With the seven deputies from the ERC and the one from the Galician nationalist party BNG, with whom the PSOE also completed its agreement this Thursday, the Socialist sudoku lacks the five from the Basque Nationalists (PNV) and the seven from Together for Catalonia (Junts). Almost nothing is known about the PNV, as is usually the case, since it always appears at the end and usually achieves a good result. We shall have to wait and see if that's the case this time. In the case of Junts, the Socialists pulled the strings as hard as they could to try and close that agreement too this Thursday, without succeeding. There was even an authorized PSOE person in Brussels to make the signature official. Meanwhile, what there was in Junts on Thursday night was a certain tiredness due to the pressure over the timing and without progress being made on the matters pending since the start of the week. Right now, it doesn't look like there will be any major developments in a time scale of hours and, as a result, Sánchez will have to modify his schedule. The Junts leadership currently in Brussels assessed that the conditions for the deal are still not there at the moment, and its members have returned to Barcelona. We'll see what this Friday's game has to offer and if there are players to take part in it.