Although there is no doubt that this Sunday's rally in Barcelona's Passeig de Gràcia against the amnesty has been a knockback for its promoters and a frustration for the three leaders who encouraged it the most: from the People's Party (PP), Alberto Núñez Feijóo and Isabel Díaz Ayuso, and from Vox, Santiago Abascal. All the organizational mobilization of the most-voted party in the Spanish general election on July 23rd, with coaches from the different Spanish provinces, and the explicit summoning of participants made by the two parties of the extreme right, brought together 50,000 people, according to Barcelona's Guàrdia Urbana. A figure that is far from the 300,000 that the same Guàrdia Urbana counted in October 2017 and that they were attempting to replicate.
But if the overall figure was really very poor, for all that this is denied by voices from Madrid and the media outlets opposed to Pedro Sánchez's negotiations with the pro-independence parties, the most concerning aspect is the hatred and viscerality that was seen in the centre of Barcelona. That the two most repeated chants were "Puigdemont, to prison" and "Puigdemont, against the wall", that there was a banner on show reading "Felipe VI complicit in the coup d'etat at the polls, in democracy and in the will of the Spaniards " or allusions to Pedro Sánchez in the style of "Sánchez, moron, your friend is Puigdemont" give an idea of how the rally went, in which there were also people with Franco-era Spanish flags and fascist salutes. This is not to mention insults to the media such as "TV3, manipulator."
If Miquel Iceta and other leaders of the Catalan Socialists (PSC) made the mistake in 2017 of aligning themselves with the right-wing in that demonstration, it is now the Socialists, surely out of necessity, that are fueling the amnesty negotiations. Only the PP always trips up on the same stone - opposing the majority of Catalans - and until it understands, internalizes and practices this, the chances of it reaching the Moncloa government palace one day will be remote, since it will not find allies other than Vox, because the other parties - including the PNV - will have no margin to reach an agreement.
Feijóo, who has been swallowed by this ultra-right that is so well-established in Madrid, finds himself following the path marked by José María Aznar and Díaz Ayuso, a voyage on which he has very little to gain, since both Aznar and Ayuso start with an advantage. If there is a need to come into alignment with the mood on the street, it's clear that the amnesty negotiators do not have much to worry about. Another thing altogether is if these manoeuvres are intended to generate a state of opinion among the Spanish institutions, starting with the crown and continuing with the judiciary and the army. Over these last two it is clear that, with more or less success, we receive news stories on a daily basis.
The point being, that the Spain that is atado y bien atado - "very well secured", in Franco's famous phrase, and well-represented in the deep state - will try to turn against the current negotiation. They tried it with appeals to political betrayal in the investiture of Feijóo in September, bringing out all their heavy artillery with Felipe González and Alfonso Guerra. Now, the next step in the escalation has been the demonstration in Barcelona. Yet in all this, they have missed the target and, moreover, the amnesty negotiations have continued and have not been interrupted. They must have realized that, for now, they are on the road to defeat.