The more time that passes since Catalonia's May 12th election night, the clearer it becomes that Salvador Illa's path to the presidency of the Generalitat has more obstacles than anticipated and is a rockier road than initially thought. Perhaps no one has a better position than the Catalan Socialist (PSC) candidate as clear winner in terms of votes and seats last Sunday, but that does not make his journey to the Palau de la Generalitat any easier. We will, perhaps, for the first time, see investiture debates for more than one candidate, and perhaps also, we will see something that is beginning to be a classic in Catalan politics, that all the time available until the deadline is used up: it happened in 2015 with Artur Mas, who had to step aside, passing the baton to Carles Puigdemont at the last minute, while the agreement between Together for Catalonia (Junts) and the Republican Left (ERC) to invest Pere Aragonès as president in 2021 also went all the way to the wire.
If an agreement is reached, it will be at the very end, since things will have to happen beforehand, and from now until the deadline of August 26th - after which the calling of new elections is automatic - there is still an eternity
If an agreement is reached, it will be at the very end, since things will have to happen beforehand, and from now until the deadline of August 26th - after which the calling of new elections is automatic - there are still more than three and a half months. An eternity. Without ruling out, at present, that although none of the three main parties claim to want a repeat election, things might get worse in such a way that current efforts lead to a dead end. There is still a long time to go, certainly, and before that things are sure to happen in both Catalan and Spanish politics, but, as of now, the only thing that is clear is that no one is comfortable enough, nor has enough strength to know whether they will be the winner when the battle ends. Having ruled out the possibility of a PSC-Junts alliance, which at the moment both Illa and Carles Puigdemont reject, it will be necessary to see how the internal debate evolves in ERC, which, for the time being, has taken refuge in something rather indisputable: it has lost clearly the elections, it has been heavily castigated and so its starting position must be to form part of the opposition.
It is therefore up to the PSC to broaden the field of play, explore alliances and draw up agreements. See if it is able to break the negatives of the moment and add the Republicans, either inside or outside the executive, to its political project. Because, in the end, the votes, if they are given, are to collaborate with a government, not to act as an opposition party. And this is not the path that in this phase of the movie Oriol Junqueras is willing to follow, since he has not forgotten previous experiences and what his party's support to the Pasqual Maragall and José Montilla governments in the period 2003-2010 meant for ERC. In addition, after the letter to the membership sent by the party president last Tuesday, it seems clear that he aspires to be able to win a Catalan election in the future, hence the importance of making a movement thinking in the short or medium term.
Puigdemont will also have to show his cards after having announced his intention to present his candidacy for the presidency, despite not having been the party with the most votes on May 12th. He argues, rightly, that others have tried before under equal circumstances, were not questioned, and succeeded in their purpose. It is true. But he also knows that everything depends on the PSC yielding, something they say they are not prepared to do, whatever the consequences it may have on Spanish politics. The response of the Catalan Socialists, publicly endorsed by the party in Madrid, greatly reduces the margin available. He either gives it away or goes into battle. This is the question that he, the Junts leadership and the parliamentary group - who are meeting this Thursday in Northern Catalonia - will have to resolve. Knowing Puigdemont, the former option - settling for half-measures - is not a phrase that tends to appear in his vocabulary.
The Sánchez-Puigdemont duel promises some interesting moments. And if the mess is not untangled, new elections in mid-October.