I recognize that the investiture of Pedro Sánchez as leader of the Spanish government is the most anomalous in the short history of democracy in Spain. A candidate who lost the general election of July 23rd is flirting with different parties that haven't yet given him their support, while waiting for what has to end up being the cornerstone of this fragile house of cards, a structure that, for now, remains vertical because the Catalan president-in-exile Carles Puigdemont has not positioned his seven congressional deputies of Together for Catalonia (Junts) with the 'no' side. Even more, the negotiations, with the normal turbulences, remain on track and despite the secrecy that exists, there is the impression that, with although a little slow off the mark, given that the calendar is unalterable, they are moving at the right pace. This Tuesday's meeting between Sánchez and Aitor Esteban, the spokesman for the Basque Nationalists (PNV) in the Congress of Deputies, clearly left this sensation. Here, no one will take a definitive position until the last moment, given the risk that anyone who does will be left without any arguments in a possible repeat election.
Although almost a month has gone by since Puigdemont and the Junts general secretary, Jordi Turull, met in Waterloo with the president of the PNV executive, Andoni Ortuzar, and the party's organizational head, Joseba Aurrekoetxea, on September 15th, the Basque nationalists have recovered the communication with Catalan pro-independence exile and also with Junts itself, which had been lost in 2017 and has now been strengthened in a more than positive climate. Not so much for the purpose of planning joint strategies as for exchanging information, something very precious in such discreet negotiations and in which the PNV does not play the leading role, but where, on the other hand, it has important interests. The first of these being that of avoiding a repeat election, since the weight of EH Bildu in Basque politics weakens ng the PNV and also because, if the existing arithmetic in Congress benefits it in any way, it is that the delicate structure of the investiture also depends on the votes of the Basque nationalists, so that, with the autonomous elections in Euskadi just around the corner, Socialist seats will be worth their weight in gold in the next Parliament in Vitoria.
We will see parliamentary groups parading through Pedro Sánchez's office in the coming days but not confirming their votes and maintaining a more than reasonable distance. We will see it with Gabriel Rufián, from Catalan Republican Left (ERC); with Bildu perhaps a little less so and also with Míriam Nogueras, from Junts. Other MPs as well, and, as is normal, nobody here will give anything to the acting PM for free. Sánchez is doing nothing more than repeating a well-rehearsed script, that his investiture is possible and that he is convinced that he will achieve it, in a gesture of optimism that is much greater than what his political interlocutors publicly declare. In the meantime, a survey published in the pro-government newspaper El País warns the Socialists that a repeat election may not go so well for the PSOE, with the prediction that it would leave the PP and Vox one seat away from an absolute majority, information that will surely make more than one Socialist politician aware of the need to avoid a return to the ballot boxes on January 14th.
In any case, once overcome the obstacle of October 12th, with its military parade and the classic whistling that the serving Spanish prime minister always receives from the extreme right - and we will see if this year as well as the Socialist someone else ends up on the receiving end - then what is predictable, according to the calendar, is that not many days will pass without another step being taken in the negotiations and final work is done on issues such as that of the amnesty, about which little is actually known, despite Sumar, Yolanda Díaz's party, trying to stick its neck out and present proposals to public opinion. It gives the impression that, for Sánchez, the negotiation is, to adopt a metaphor from the world of chess, an exhibition of simultaneous games in which the acting PM is unable to lose a single one. He has to win all of them, since he understands that only by this means will he have all the votes he needs. Because if we are to talk about real political victory, the triumphs cannot be the Socialists', but rather the independence movement will need to be able to show them off without any reservations.