The poll which this newspaper published on Sunday night regarding the upcoming May 28th municipal elections in Barcelona shows a close three-way tie, with Xavier Trias holding a slight lead of less than one percent over Jaume Collboni and Ada Colau. The survey, conducted by the Feedback Institute, thus suggests that the final result hinges on the large group of undecided voters and on the final voter turnout, in a situation that has a rather surprising aspect: that despite the uncertainty surrounding the victory, which is typically a catalyst for voting, the predicted voter turnout is 62.32%, almost four points down on 2019.
The final stretch of the campaign in Barcelona promises to be dramatic. Never in all the municipal elections held since the Spanish state's return to democratic processes - a total of eleven elections - has victory been so closely contested and, moreover, in a competition between three contenders. Each of the three has strengths and weaknesses that could shape the vote. Let's examine each one in turn.
Xavier Trias is undeniably the candidate with, theoretically, the greatest potential for growth this week. The Trias for Barcelona candidate has the best image, he can draw from some candidatures with whom he shares a few thousand votes - Valents, for example - which already know that they are going to be left out of the city council, and thus he is in a position to further win over the anti-Colau vote. He is also the one who can hold his nose and borrow votes from the right. Against him, at least in many areas of Barcelona, is the fact that the overall strategy of Together for Catalonia (Junts) - the party he belongs to but whose name is not on his candidature - does not help him and nor does the situation of the party president, Laura Borràs, convicted of document forgery and abuse of authority.
Jaume Collboni, candidate of the Catalan Socialists (PSC), has entered the race for victory through a very good campaign. He has made no mistakes, has been disciplined with the messages he has offered and has had the advantage of the backing of the Spanish government and a PSC with the wind at its back. Against him is the question of whether the vote of the undecided, now one of the keys and not precisely in favour of the mayor, can be awoken subtly so that he can tip-toe around his own tenure in the city council as deputy mayor and attribute all the wear and tear and policy failures in many areas to Colau.
And incumbent mayor Ada Colau, from Barcelona en Comú, shows, as in 2019, surprising resilience. Seventy-five percent of Barcelona residents reject her return as mayor, according to the Feedback survey, yet she is still there, with chances to win again. The widespread support from organizations and associations which back her, and have been helped by her, ensures that she enters the final week of the campaign with options. This seemed difficult at the beginning of the year. Colau will likely helped if the turnout stays at a contained level, as her supporters are already the most mobilized for May 28th.
It's an anomaly that the media are not able to disclose new election polls during this final stretch of the campaign and that these tasks are solely in the hands of the parties, so that we, the media, know them but cannot publish them unless strange loopholes are found. No one seems to agree with this, yet no one does anything to change the law. Even though it will serve little purpose since we've been like this for a lifetime, it's worth mentioning and denouncing.