The decision of the Supreme Court of the United States that rejects the removal of Donald Trump's name from the ballot in Republican primaries, against the criterion established in the state of Colorado, means, in practice, an important victory for the former president and, indirectly, an impetus to his return to the White House. Democratic hopes that justice would remove Trump from the presidential race have not been fulfilled, and the possibility of the US launching itself into an unknown - or, rather, all too familiar - future is once again a reality. There is no doubt that Trump will win the Republican party nomination without any significant opposition and this will be set in stone by the primaries this Super Tuesday in which convention delegates will be chosen in 21 US states.
Although he has other criminal cases pending, everything points to Trump having definitively put himself on the right track to aspire to re-election. The polls published in the United States, a country where a massive audience expects to be constantly informed of the political ratings, do nothing but widen the distance between Trump and the incumbent president Joe Biden, to the benefit of the former. Last weekend, a Siena College poll for The New York Times gave bleak results for Biden: the president's disapproval rating has risen to 47%, the highest of his presidency; the Republican candidate leads the Democrat by five points (48% to 43%), with almost 10% undecided; most voters feel that the American economy has been mismanaged or, directly, that the measures applied during Biden's term have harmed them. And one last detail that is no small thing: the minorities on which Biden based his victory, such as African Americans or Hispanics, even women, are the most unhappy.
If we add the doubts about Biden's health, which will only increase in the coming months, or his memory problems at the age of 81, the picture that lies ahead for the current occupant of the White House is anything but hopeful. The polls also highlight a fact that is concerning because of how quickly the Republican electorate has turned a page, for example on Trump's involvement in the serious events of the assault on the Capitol on January 6th, 2021. Beyond the Supreme Court decision not to eliminate his ballot and open up the real possibility of his re-election, American society should not have forgotten the dangerous turn that those events took, impacting on world public opinion. Images that we have seen in other countries of the world and that we thought we would never see in Washington and that, in the end, signalled the arrival of the worst of confrontational and populist politics.
Everything points to Trump having definitively put himself on the right track to aspire to re-election
Things will have to change a lot for Biden to be able to win re-election at the November 5th election. The distance between the two candidates is becoming sizeable and although Trump is unpredictable, the wear and tear he could have in these months seems more than cushioned. This political figure, with all his complications, is able to retain 97% of those who voted for him four years ago, while his rival only consolidates 83%, with some major losses of support. In an electoral framework in which everything is decided between two candidates, a difference of 14 points is abysmal. Although there has been speculation in recent times that Kamala Harris could leave her status on the Biden ticket to a more important Democratic figure as a candidate for vice president, it does not appear that anyone with a winning outlook is ready to take over.
There has also been speculation that Michelle Obama, wife of the former president, could be a Democratic recourse if Biden's options deteriorate or his health goes downhill. While this rumour spreads, Obama, who turned 60 last January and retains her popularity intact, remains silent and answers with the very predictable phrase that she want nothing to do with running for office.