A recent CNN poll gives the former United States president Donald Trump a significant advantage over the current tenant of the White House, Joe Biden, if the presidential elections, scheduled for November 5th, were to be held now. It is true that many things have to happen, both politically and judicially - where Trump faces a series of obstacles - before he can make his candidacy official. But it is still surprising that after the assault on the Capitol, in January 2021, American society still maintains confidence in the Republican candidate.
Consequently, we will need to pay close attention to the decision of the US Supreme Court which has announced that in February it will study the ruling by the state of Colorado which excludes the former president from the ballot for the presidential primary elections in that state. Essentially, because the verdict will apply nationwide and create a uniform resolution for the suits filed in other states to disqualify Trump. The key will be in a 19th-century constitutional amendment, the 14th, which prohibits the nomination for federal office of anyone who has participated in rebellion or insurrection.
The central question will be the level of Trump's participation in the Capitol riots, about which there is apparently no doubt, since he encouraged them in unequivocal statements. Also, according to Trump's lawyers, this constitutional amendment does not apply to the former president. Either way, the former Republican president has already revealed himself as a danger to democracy in the United States, and only Joe Biden's timid handling of the presidency at the age of 81 can offer some clue to the surprising situation in which American society finds itself, having to choose between two candidates with such low popularity.
It is still surprising that after the assault on the Capitol, American society maintains confidence in the Republican candidate
The primary system in the United States is always capable of offering up surprises, with candidates reaching the nomination when they did not start as favourites. This time, that does not seem to be the case, since it is unlikely that any Democrat will compete with the president, who has already expressed his desire to seek a new mandate. In the Republican ranks, if the Supreme Court allows Trump's candidacy, the former president will have no rival in his party either. His main rival, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, trails him by 30 points.
In short, with the poll forecasts as vertiginous as they are, the position that American justice ends up adopting will end up being decisive.