Set down for this Thursday on the agenda of Spain's Congress of Deputies is the final legislative approval of the amnesty law, after a tortuous journey through the Spanish houses of parliament. It was first approved in the lower house on March 14th, then was rejected by the full Senate on May 14th and, in accordance with the Constitution, it now returns to Congress for final approval and subsequent publication in the official state gazette bearing the signature of the head of state, who will authorize it. This last procedure is purely administrative and will take one month at the most.
This will fulfil the most significant condition set for the investiture of Pedro Sánchez as new Spanish prime minister last October by the Catalan pro-independence parties and, in a way, the Spanish legislature now enters - as has already been seen this past week - an uncertain path, for several reasons. The first and most fundamental, because the Socialist-Sumar government lacks solid parliamentary support, since the parliamentary majority agreed for the investiture is in crisis after the refusal of the Catalan and Spanish Socialists (PSC and PSOE respectively) to give way to Carles Puigdemont's demand to preside over the Catalan government, just as the pro-independence leader had allowed Sánchez to do at Spanish level to the detriment of Alberto Núñez Feijóo, whose People's Party (PP) had prevailed in the elections. The Socialists absolutely rule out that Salvador Illa will give up his goal after the victory on May 12th.
Three more circumstances can be mentioned in this not-insignificant struggle: from this Wednesday, Pedro Sánchez will be able to dissolve parliament and call a new election in Spain, since it will be one year since he officially called the last vote, held on July 23rd, 2023. Secondly, the awareness that the amnesty law, with its legislative procedure overcome, will now set off on a slow judicial path that will cause many of the ongoing court procedures to stagnate, or prevent its actual application for the independence process leaders for a long time, by means of the raising of preliminary questions with Europe justice. In this regard, it is surprising and concerning that through the judges' corporate mail system a guide has been sent to about 5,000 members of the judiciary which, in practice, is aimed at nothing other than stopping the law from become effective for so long as possible
With the passing of the amnesty law, the Spanish legislature enters - as has already been seen this past week - an uncertain path
Finally, there is Feijóo's challenge to Sánchez, demanding that he withdraw the law and call a general election for having deceived everyone. It is a move that passively obliges the PSOE leader to pass the law, ruling out any eventuality or artifice before Thursday, or the immediate calling of elections. If not immediate, then when? Sooner or later, the rumours say. And, in fact, his strategy of tensing his left-wing electorate - through his fake resignation, the Milei dispute and Palestine - is apparently with this goal in mind.
All of this, amidst the insipid European elections scheduled for June 9th, much more dangerous for Feijóo than for Sánchez. The People's Party leader has a lot to lose and almost nothing to gain as long as the pace in Spanish politics is continued to be set by the Socialist leader.