As was more than predictable, the former Spanish government minister José Luis Ábalos has broken ties with the Socialists (PSOE) and has preferred to move to the mixed group of MPs in Congress rather than sacrifice himself, as was requested by the Socialists from Pedro Sánchez on down. Ábalos is now a political pariah, an MP spurned, but he knows that he has the political future of the Spanish prime minister in his hands. Such are the paradoxes of life: the PM's most important protector, who accompanied him in his journey through the desert after his departure from the PSOE general secretariat in October 2016 until his return in June 2017, the man that helped him make possible the autobiographical story he tells in his book Manual de resistencia, probably holds the destruction of the party leader between his fingers. Because the Socialists, by throwing Ábalos into the abyss, expelling him from the parliamentary group and, soon, from the party, have left in the air a media, political and judicial artifact of unpredictable reaction.
A repudiated politician like Ábalos becomes a dangerous piece of machinery: for all the things he knows having been a former minister and organizational secretary of the PSOE, the party's number three for more than four years, between 2017 and 2021. His secrets must be inexhaustible, but also his ability to make things believable that are not true, if they harm Sánchez. Sooner or later, we will see this, because political isolation always ends up having an effect and loneliness takes its toll. We will also see that if Ábalos was almost completely intractable for the Spanish right, one of those wild boar deputies who always bite their opponents, he will end up being a coveted target of promises and whitewashing offers by this same right. The People's Party (PP), fawning, looking for a flank to attack the Sánchez government and offering it, perhaps, a protection that the Socialists will no longer give him.
Ábalos is now a political pariah, an MP spurned, but he knows that he has the political future of the Spanish prime minister in his hands.
If the personal circumstance of Ábalos moving to the parliamentary mixed group is already significant in itself, there is one facet that must not be forgotten and it is none other than the loss of authority of someone who was until very recently his boss and his friend. Sánchez, accustomed as he is to losing very few political tussles and even less so if they are internal, has fallen defeated to the canvas of organic authority. He has asked an MP to resign and the reply has been that he can forget it, that the MP has no intention of doing so.
I have a vivid memory of a conversation with a significant Socialist leader, before last summer, when it was speculated that the PSOE might had the leadership of the government to the PP, if there was a large difference in seats, as Felipe González did in 1996, giving way to José María Aznar. At that time, it was González himself who called Catalan president Jordi Pujol, in the kingmaker role, asking him to reach an accord with Aznar as the winner of the elections. Well, this Socialist leader assured me that this would not happen, because if the PSOE parliamentary group had one thing, it was a monolithic solidity and with personal loyalties that were beyond doubt. Nobody would challenge Sánchez.
The chain of custody of the Socialist government's hold on the prime ministership has been broken at the link that was apparently the strongest: a political protector and a personal friend. And it has happened with a veritable declaration of war, typical of one who feels evicted, but has not yet written the last line of his biography. Now, he just has to decide if he wants to die by killing or slowly resheath his sword after his dramatic entry onto the stage.