"'We have to return to normal', it's a phrase that [Catalan health minister] Argimon uses, and I don't like it." This was stated by the researcher and epidemiologist Oriol Mitjà during a press appearance just before the presentation of his new book El món que ens espera ("The world that awaits us", Columna, 2022). "We have not reached the point where Covid-19 is endemic because there is a lot of transmission of omicron 2 in Germany and France, with a degree of uncertainty about what will happen next month. The second uncertainty is what will happen in the next 12 months."
Mitjà, however, warns that the SARS-CoV-2 virus could continue to mutate and get away from the vaccines. "We can't predict the severity, a new variant could come from Asia, or what happened with omicron, which was a surprise. There has been no end to the pandemic. To say 'normal' is too daring."
Could a new virus emerge?
The infectious diseases researcher warns that a new virus could appear: "A new virus, that could be respiratory and rapidly transmitted." In this regard, he believes that such a development could come out of Africa or Indochina, where there are most contacts between humans and animals.
Mitjà, however, has been critical in recent days of the Catalan health minister, Josep Maria Argimon. He believes that the Catalan department has not consulted its external experts "because they do not like our response. They have not asked us because they don't like the answers we want to give. Isolation [of those infected] should be maintained because that is what the scientific evidence indicates."
Among the problems of stopping mass testing which has been carried out till now, is the failure to detect cases. "Even if there were a wave of omicron variant BA2, we could miss it, and fail to see it because no tests are being done." Asked about a possible seventh wave of Covid in Catalonia, he said that "it would have to be about six months since the last vaccines. To be vulnerable again, it would take about six months, and another variant to be generated." Along the same lines, he points out that "mild cases are not identified but have the potential to infect others."
Meanwhile, the expert admits that this new book of his may not be as successful as the previous one, A cor obert, "because people are tired. There is pandemic fatigue. I guess we wanted to turn the page and no one wants to hear someone talking about Covid. We need changes in our pandemic and structural preparation. It will be a huge mistake to turn the page without reflecting on this."
The United States is already administering a second round of booster shots, he says. That is, a fourth dose. Meanwhile, other countries do not have enough vaccines to deal with the pandemic.
Does Catalonia have a preparation plan?
Mitjà believes that Catalonia lacks a preparation plan that foresees scenarios that could emerge, and it should be implemented. "Those who are vulnerable should continue to be vaccinated every six months, and everyone, once every 12 months. Testing and isolation of all the positive cases. Restrictions can be lifted and the mask can probably be dispensed with as well," he said. He warned, however, that restaurants and hotels should have the same ventilation as in theatres and gyms, that is, with a filter control.
Finally, the expert considers that the epidemiological situation "is good and the ending of a mask mandate in schools is acceptable because few cases are being dealt with." However, he did not specify when.
Main image: Researcher and epidemiologist Oriol Mitjà / Graham Jepson - Columna