Spain's AIReF (Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility) warns that the political tension between the Spanish and Catalan governments could cause a fall in GDP of between 0.4% and 1.2%, so between 4 and 12 billion euros, depending on how long the situation lasts for.
The body emphasises that the lack of a solution in Catalonia could mean a serious hit for the Spanish economy in the short term. They have reduced their predicted GDP growth for the year from 2.6% to 2.3% due to the political situation, but warn that the impact of the uncertainty in Catalonia could be from 0.4% if the situation is resolved quickly, up to 1.2% if it drags out, which would see growth reduced to 1.5%.
These predictions come in the body's report on the macroeconomic forecast for the 2018 Budget Plan sent to Brussels on Monday by the Spanish government. They describe as "prudent" the impact from the uncertainty associated with the Catalonia situation incorporated by the government in their official forecast, believing that it presents "risks of decrease".
Dependent on the solution
Everything will depend, therefore, on whether a solution is found and, above all, on when. According to AIReF, the 0.3% fall in GDP suggested by the Spanish government will only be seen if a solution is found soon. If it continues into 2018, however, the impact will be even more serious (0.4%), which could grow up to a loss of 12 billion euros (1.2%).