'Yes' would win a Catalan independence referendum, if it were to be held along the lines of the one in Scotland in 2014, namely under terms agreed upon with the central state. That's the result of the section of the pre-election survey carried out by Feedback for El Nacional dedicated to self-determination. The results are based on 800 telephone interviews carried out between 21st and 26th March.
Firstly, a large majority of respondents, 65.7%, believe that the solution to the conflict between Catalonia and Spain is to call an independence referendum. For 28.2%, on the other hand, a referendum is not the solution.
To be more specific, 55.6% believe that the solution is a referendum in agreement with Spain; 5.9%, a referendum be it agreed with Spain or not; whilst 4.2%, believe a unilateral referendum to be the right choice. 4.0% believe a referendum is not the solution because one has already been held.
Support for a referendum is also surprisingly high among those who say they voted last time for unionist parties who oppose just such an exercise. That's the case for 44.5% of PSC voters, as well as supporters of PP (13.2%) and Cs (7.1%).
As for voting intention, if such a referendum were to be held, 'yes' wins, but falls just shy of an absolute majority. 49.6% of respondents said they would vote in favour of independence; 41.3% against. There's also a notable 6.0% who responded that they don't know how they would vote.
Breaking the results down by how respondents say they voted in the 2016 general election, 99.5% of those who voted for the now nonexistent CDC say they would vote in favour of independence, as do 97.1% of those who voted for ERC. 41.9% of En Comú-Podem voters would say 'yes' to independence, whilst 82.8% of them said they believed a referendum of some kind would be the solution.
Of voters for the anti-independence parties, 13.7% from PSC would now vote for independence. Voting against independence would be supporters of Cs (94.2%) and PP (91.6%). Those who say they don't know how they'd vote on the question of independence are notable factions within PSC (12.0%) and En Comú (11.0%) voters.
When it comes to constitutional reform, 62.6% of respondents believe it should include the right to self-determination, which is almost 13 points higher than support for independence itself. 33.5% of those surveyed oppose adding the right to the 1978 Constitution.