Let's get straight to the point. You will forgive me if I bore you with figures, but since dataism, that is, the cult of data, the numerical (this has not changed since Galileo) now provides the toolbox for any discipline - political analysis and journalism as well - I will submit the reborn dialogue table between the governments of Spain and Catalonia to this new science, the ultimate paradigm, it would seem, of the purest objectivity.
In the last Catalan elections, held on February 14th this year, the final results put the Catalan Socialists (PSC), the party of Salvador Illa and the Catalan branch of the PSOE of Pedro Sánchez, as the leading force in numbers of deputies and with a percentage of valid votes - which is what translates (or not) into seats - of 23.03%. It was followed by the Republican Left (ERC), the party of Oriol Junqueras and president Pere Aragonès, with 21.30%. En Comú Podem, the associate of Podemos in Catalonia, was the sixth strongest, with 6.87% of the votes. As these three are the political spaces which were present at last Tuesday's meeting in Barcelona, the first consequence is that the dialogue table of Sánchez and Aragonès represents only half of the Catalan voters in the last parliamentary elections: to be exact, a 51.20%, which is practically as much or as little as the 51.11% of the votes obtained by all the pro-independence parties in that election.
That is: the legitimacy of the dialogue table, in terms of political representation, with 51% of the votes, is the same as that of the pro-independence bloc which is denied the right to carry out its programme. With the difference that a bloc which includes the forces of the Spanish government - the PSOE/PSC and Podemos/Comuns - can impose its policies and proposals for a solution to the conflict and the other bloc cannot. Sánchez's numbers are starting to look viable for a 3.0 "Tripartite" (Socialists, ERC and Comuns) that, no doubt, would like to one day move from the dialogue table to the Catalan government. But this prospect is still under construction.
The legitimacy of the dialogue table, with 51% of the votes, is the same as that of the pro-independence bloc which is denied the right to carry out its programme
We continue with the data. What we have pointed out is that the table represents only half of the voters, because the third force on 14th February, ERC's partner in the Catalan government, Together for Catalonia (Junts), Carles Puigdemont's party, with Laura Borràs - effective candidate - and Jordi Sànchez, with 20.07% of the vote, was left off the table. As is well known, the reason for its absence was president Aragonès's rejection - veto and/or gesture of authority, if you prefer - of the names proposed by Junts to attend the meeting, three of which were not members of the government. It is obvious that Pedro Sánchez would not even have come to the Generalitat palace last Tuesday - he hesitated until the last moment - if the pardoned prisoners Sànchez and Turull had been sitting at the table. Junqueras has already been vetoed in June. In any case, the second consequence is that, without Junts, the dialogue table represents only another half, half of the government of Catalonia. And the third is that the pro-independence forces, only present in it through ERC, are frankly in the minority. Let's see to what extent.
Starting from the fact that the PSC, ERC and Comuns have 51.20% of the vote, the non-independence parties represent 68.39% of the dialogue bloc versus 41.60% for the supporters of the "amnesty, referendum and independence" package. Again, it must be acknowledged that Sánchez is a champion at mathematics. What he failed to achieve at the polls - trying but being unable to frustrate a pro-independence majority - he has achieved at the dialogue table, where pro-independence forces are in a minority facing Socialists and Comuns. The photo of Sánchez sitting for a few seconds at the table with the delegations, underlines the victory: seven members of the Spanish government and three of the Catalan executive, including the presidents. In other words, a "government-to-government" table that is worse than lame and unbalanced, although one in line with the interests of Sánchez, who, according to El País, was not going to sit down for that photo but agreed - as Aragonès wanted - having seen how well things were going for him at the Generalitat palace.
Sanchez is a champion at mathematics. What he failed to achieve at the polls - being unable to frustrate a pro-independence majority - he has achieved at the dialogue table, where pro-independence forces are in a minority facing Socialists and Comuns.
But there is more. Led by the light of dataism one can always go even further beyond the naked truth, clean of all dirt and prejudices. In the last Catalan parliamentary elections, the pro-independence parties managed for the first time to cross the Rubicon of 50% of valid votes, as we have already pointed out, 51.11%. That is the final sum of the percentage obtained by ERC (21.30%), JxCat (20.07%), the CUP (6.68%), which form the majority in Parliament, with 74 of the 135 seats, and three forces that didn't manage to enter the House: PDeCAT (2.72%), FNC (0.18%) and PNC (0.16%). Ergo, here is the fourth consequence, not only is the independence movement in the minority at the dialogue table, but the party that represents it there, ERC, is also in the minority among the independence forces. The first fact is shown in the Socialists-Comuns versus ERC relationship in the table, as already noted. The second is deduced from the electoral weight of ERC in the whole of the pro-independence bloc: although it is the option with the most support, it only won 41.67% of all the votes for the bloc. The rest of the pro-independence electoral cake was distributed at the polls among Junts (39.26%), CUP (13.06%), PDeCAT (5.32%), FNC (0.35%) and PNC (0.31%). Therefore, 58.33% of the citizens of Catalonia who voted for independence are outside the dialogue table. In this bloc of absentees there are 39.26% who in February opted for Junts, the second party in the Government, and 13.06% who voted for the CUP, the third party that makes up the majority in Parliament and supports the executive in power.
And if you read these numbers in terms of pro-independence strategy, those who are left out are the most reluctant or openly opposed parties at the table, which, by the way, are the majority in the pro-independence electoral bloc, Junts and the CUP, with 52 .32%, compared to 41.67% for ERC. All in all, 52.32% compared to 47.30% if we add to the ERC the percentage of the extra-parliamentary parties PDeCAT and PNC - a mutation of the old Convergència and its splinter group, unconditional supporters of dialogue.
A total of 58.33% of the citizens of Catalonia who voted for independence are outside the dialogue table
The dialogue table has worked the miracle of taking the parliamentary majority that emerged from the last elections and turning it inside out like a sock: the pro-independence forces (74 of 135) negotiate by means of 33 ERC deputies against the 41 of the PSC and the Comuns. With this balance of power, one does not have to be an Einstein to predict what the outcome of dialogue, negotiation, and agreement may be. For now, the limited agreement that all this should proceed sine die. The dialogue table is not only a machine for devaluing the conflict but for neutralizing the political and parliamentary strength of the independence movement at the moment when it has the most support. Bravo to Pedro Sánchez and his squaring of the circle. As for the others, they should check the numbers before the next time they bump into each other.