The CIS, Spain's publicly-owned opinion pollster, continues to inflate what has been dubbed the “Illa effect” in the Catalan elections of February 14th. Its new poll asserts that voter support for Salvador Illa's Catalan Socialists (PSC) is holding or even increasing. The party could reach 26% of the vote. On the other hand, far behind, would be the main pro-independence candidates Pere Aragonès (ERC) and Laura Borràs (JxCat), in that order. This is an unpublished rapid-turnaround "flash" poll, which the CIS announced yesterday by surprise. Until now, for all Spanish autonomous elections, only one poll has been conducted, not two as in this case. In addition, its survey has always been published just before the start of the electoral process, not in the middle of the campaign as now. The poll seeks to assess voter preferences more accurately in the face of volatility and does not make estimates of the numbers of seats which parties will take.
Thus, according to the CIS flash poll, the PSC would win the February 14th parliamentary elections easily. The poll gives it an estimated 23.7% of the vote, virtually identical to that in its larger-sample poll of two weeks ago, but with a possible range between 22% and 26%. Second place would go to Catalan Republican Left (ERC), with 19.9% (down by 0.7%), with a range of between 19% and 21%. And the bronze medal would be for Together for Catalonia (JxCat), with votes from 14.6% of the ballots cast (almost two per cent up), and a range of between 13% and 18%, thus maintaining the same podium positions as it forecast two weeks ago.
The other parties are also-rans, at a great distance from the leaders. Fourth in terms of votes cast are En Comú Podem (Comuns), with between 7% and 10%, practically the same as the previous poll. Ciudadanos (Cs) would lose momentum, with a margin of between 7% and 9%. The left-wing pro-independence Popular Unity (CUP) show an upward trend, with between 6 and 8% of votes cast. And the duel between the Popular Party (PP) and far-right Vox would be very even: while the PP are expected to win between 5% and 7%, the extreme right party could win between 5% and 8%. Compared to the previous poll, Àngels Chacón's pro-independence PDeCAT would double the votes they receive, but only from 0.7% to a still-marginal 1.5% of the total.
Below: CIS Poll - February poll - voting intentions in 2021 Catalan election
Above: CIS Polls - Comparative - voting intentions in 2021 Catalan election
(21-D = elections of 21st Dec 2017; CIS Gener 2021 = poll of Jan 2021; CIS Febrer 2021 = poll of Feb 2021)
The Spanish government's polling agency asserts, then, that the pro-independence bloc will not overcome the 50% barrier, but could get close: ERC, JxCat, the CUP and the PDeCAT could reach a total of 49% of the vote. On the other hand, they could fall to 39% at the opposite end of the results range which the poll forecasts. The clearly unionist pro-Spain bloc (PSC, Cs, PP and Vox) would move in a range of between 39% and 50%, says the poll. But the uncertainty in the predictions for individual parties is higher on the unionist side.
A notable aspect of this poll, however - and one in which it coincides with other surveys - is the proportion of voters who are still undecided ten days away from election day. Of all survey respondents, 26.3% say they "don't know" which list to vote for. As for those who might stay home, 12.2% say they won't vote. 11.4% refused to answer when asked about their vote. Half of all voters either won't vote or haven't yet decided who they will vote for. The survey was conducted between Monday and Wednesday this week on a sample of 1,838 respondents.