It is the first survey of Spanish voting preferences by the public CIS research agency since the pardons for the Catalan political prisoners and the major government reshuffle. And its results give some reinforcement to Pedro Sánchez's Socialists (PSOE), which regains ground over Popular Party (PP) leader Pablo Casado. If a month ago the distance between them had fallen to 3.5 per cent, it now exceeds 5 per cent once again. On the other hand, far-right Vox is also regaining ground, while the junior party in the coalition government, Unidas Podemos, continues to be relegated as the fourth largest party. Overall, the progressive and conservative blocs are almost unchanged. The survey was conducted between July 2nd and 15th with a sample of 4,000 respondents.
According to the CIS poll, if Spanish elections were held today, Pedro Sánchez's PSOE would win them again with 28.6% of the votes at the polls, 1.2% more than a month ago. On the other hand, the PP would fall by half a point, with 23.4% of the vote. Thus, the distance between the two stretches out to 5.2 per cent. Vox would continue to be the third largest party in the Spanish Congress, obtaining 13.6% in the poll and making up lost ground, with a 0.6% rise. Unidas Podemos come in fourth, with 10.6%, a 1.4% fall - practically the same amount that the Socialists have risen. In fifth place would be the struggling Ciudadanos, who would lose 0.2% on the last poll to register 5.5% of the hypothetical vote.
CIS: Spanish political barometer July 2021 - Estimate of vote (as % of valid vote)
By voting blocs, then, the parties of the current Spanish minority government, the PSOE and Unidas Podemos, would total 39.2% of the vote. This figure represents a 0.2% fall from the June poll, although it only takes into account the two governing parties. For its part, the right-wing total of the PP, Vox and Ciudadanos remains virtually the same, with 42.5%, just 0.1% less.
With the Spanish government achieving a "good" result at 39.2%, and the right wing opposition at 42.5%, the numbers again underscore the dependence of the Sánchez administration on its support from minor parties, especially in Catalonia and the Basque Country, as well as the left-wing Més País.
Indeed, among the Catalan pro-independence parties, the survey suggests a slight adjustment in results, but without changing the places on the podium. Catalan Republican Left (ERC) remains the leading pro-independence force in Congress, with 3.3% of the votes (measured, of course, over the Spanish state as a whole) - a 0.3% fall. That same three-tenths of a percent is the amount that their Catalan government partners Together for Catalonia (Junts) rise, to reach 1.9% of votes. The CUP would drop by one tenth, to 0.7%. In the Basque Country, the PNV nationalists would get 1.4% (the same as the previous poll) and pro-independence EH Bildu 0.7% (a 0.3% fall).
Díaz overtakes Sanchez
As usual in recent CIS polls, all political leaders get a fail mark from voters in the leaders' ratings. At the head, however, a recently-elevated deputy PM surpasses the prime minister: Yolanda Díaz of Unidad Podemos gets 4.7 out of 10 and Pedro Sánchez, 4.3. Behind him is Íñigo Errejón, leader of Más País, with 4.2. The list is closed by Inés Arrimadas (3.5), Pablo Casado (3.4) and Santiago Abascal (2.8).
Paradoxically, though, moving from her ratings as a leader to those as a minister, Yolanda Díaz scrapes a pass mark, at 5.1, the same as that obtained by the economic deputy PM, Nadia Calviño, now promoted to second in command at the Moncloa. The best score goes to the minister of defence, Margarita Robles, with 5.3. These three ministers are the only ones to get more than 5 out of 10.
Will it be the last CIS political barometer with the controversial José Félix Tezanos at the helm of the public research agency? The rumours are flying around Madrid.