Spain's People's Party (PP) has exceeded even its own expectations in Andalusia. Not only did the main party of Spain's right finish first on election night, as all the surveys have been predicting in recent weeks, but it went much further: the candidate and current president of the Andalusian autonomous community, Juanma Moreno, had repeatedly demanded that citizens of the large southern Spain region mobilize in order to allow the PP to govern alone, without depending on the votes of other parties. In this regard, far-right Vox had threatened to claim a presence in the new government if they held the key to Moreno's majority, while the PSOE had totally rejected calls for it to abstain in a hypothetical PP investiture vote to deny the extreme right entry to the Andalusian executive.
Finally, any nervousness that the PP retained about this dilemma was removed from the equation early in the evening, giving way to a fiesta that is expected to last many hours at the party's headquarters in the capital Seville: the surveys released at the closure of the polling stations at 8pm on Sunday predicted an overwhelming absolute majority for the PP. And as the final count progressed, this was confirmed: with 40% of votes counted, Juanma Moreno was already set to pass the 55-seat mark which denotes an absolute majority in the autonomous parliament. With 99% scrutinized, the PP had 58 deputies: an historic result which means the PP has consolidated the hold on Andalusia it obtained four years ago as part of a coalition with Ciudadanos, with investiture cooperation from a surging Vox. Thus, an autonomous community that historically had opted for the PSOE for almost forty years, a true hegemonic stronghold of Socialism in Spain, has gone over to the right. The conservatives have not only imposed themselves on Andalusia as a whole, but they have also won all of Andalusia's eight provinces. And there were other headlines as well: Ciudadanos (Cs), the PP's governing partners in Seville since 2018, have completely disappeared from the political map of Andalusia, going from 21 MPs to zero. And the right-left balance between parliamentary blocs has also swung significantly to the right: from the relatively-even match shown in the 2018 ratio of 59 right-wing MPs to 50 from the left, the balance has now tilted sharply towards the right to 72 to 37, almost two deputies from the right for every one on the left
Inner semi-circle shows 2018 results: the 21 seats in the orange-coloured segment are those of Ciudadanos (Cs), which fell to 0 seats in 2022.
Full results 2022 elections to the Parliament of the autonomous community of Andalusia.
Energy to the PP and a tough blow for Pedro Sánchez
Despite being an election limited to the south of Spain, the results are sure to reverberate throughout the state. With this convincing victory in the Socialists' greatest stronghold, the People's Party has managed to win the last three autonomous community elections, after last year's convincing win in the Community of Madrid and this February in Castilla y León. Added to the effect that Alberto Núñez Feijóo has had on polling for a hypothetical Spanish general election, the continuity of the Spanish prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, is increasingly in doubt beyond 2023, when the next legislative elections are due.
"All of Spain was waiting for Andalusia", was how PP general secretary Cuca Gamarra put it on an evening when the right trumphed and for once the victory wasn't led by the far-right of Vox, which only added two seats, but by a PP trying to sport a more centrist image. And in addition, the PSOE candidate, Juan Espadas, was Pedro Sánchez's personal choice, and one to which the public has not responded favourably. The feeling of a 'change of cycle' towards the PP is evident and will be of great concern in Madrid's Moncloa palace, although the Spanish government is likely to wait out the storm, focus on the central executive's management and use the available time to try and reverse the negative trend.
Party at PP headquarters
As the final results announced the victory of Juanma Moreno, dozens and dozens of People's Party voters and supporters rolled up to party HQ in Seville to celebrate the historic victory. With forests of Andalusian and Spanish flags, chants of Presidente, Presidente and music at full volume, the atmosphere was one of absolute festivity. Moreno, addressing the audience from a podium and with a smile from ear to ear, repeatedly thanked all the Andalusians who voted for his victory today, and shared a special mention for PP president Feijóo, for "collaborating and getting it right" during the campaign. But he also shared references to the PP's intention to turn this victory in the south of Spain into an earthquake that could spread throughout the country and allow Pedro Sánchez to be defeated. Without any explicit mention, he said that they have set "an example" for the whole of Spain, and that they will make "Andalusia great in order to make all of Spain great." And he could not help but emphasize his emotional connection with both his autonomous community and his country: "Andalusia is a land deeply proud of who we are - and of being Spanish."