The first part of the round of meetings that Josep Rull, speaker of the Catalan Parliament, has held with the parliamentary groups, have confirmed that no candidate is in a position to present their bid for investiture as president of Catalonia next Tuesday. Thus, the June 25th session of Parliament has nowhere to go. With the announcement by the Socialist (PSC) election winner, Salvador Illa, that he discards going into the running for this first attempt because he needs "more time" to negotiate with the Republican Left (ERC) and the alternative-left Comuns, everything points to Plan B: the holding of an "act equivalent to a failed investiture" on the 25th, which will enable the electoral countdown to start and the parties will then have a firm deadline for forging an agreement: August 25th. Of the five parties that met this Tuesday with Rull, none has announced their support for either Illa or Puigdemont. On Wednesday it will be the turn of the three largest parliamentary groups: the PSC, Together (Junts) and ERC. However, there is nothing suggesting that these meetings will change the climate prevailing in Parliament: there will be no candidate for an investiture on June 25th, and instead, all eyes are on a negotiation with a two-month limit.
In fact, before starting the contacts with the parliamentary groups, Josep Rull admitted in an interview in the Cafè d'Idees radio/TV programme on La 2 and Ràdio 4 that he cannot "force anyone" to appear in the plenary next Tuesday. In the course of this, the Junts politician pointed out, precisely, that the act equivalent to a failed investiture "is an option". This approach has been shared, for example, by the Comuns and the left-wing, pro-independence CUP, who consider that "it makes no sense" to subject a candidate to an investiture without having the necessary support.
Comuns: first the content, then the government
However, Josep Rull's contacts with the parties with parliamentary representation have made it possible for some of them to start showing their cards and delimiting the playing field. The first were the Comuns, who maintain that only a tripartite coalition can avoid a repeat election. The party led by Jéssica Albiach maintain that they have started negotiations with the PSC this week and that, first, they are addressing content. In this "first phase", they expect a bilateral negotiation between them and the Socialists, and another of the same nature between the Socialists and the Republican Left. Albiach was optimistic that this route can work and hopes that, in a "more advanced" phase, there can be a three-way negotiation. The Comuns maintain that it will be a "demanding negotiation" and that their priorities are "the solution to the housing crisis, to reverse the weakening of public services and that all the policies promoted by the Generalitat are under the umbrella of ecological planning". From here, Albiach's party would like to be within the government, but they will determine it based on the content they might potentially agree with the PSC and ERC.
PP: neither Illa, nor Puigdemont
In this context of deadlock, the point of view of the fourth largest group in the chamber, the People's Party (PP), is important. Its president, Alejandro Fernández, has conveyed to Josep Rull that they will not invest in Salvador Illa as president and nor will they support Carles Puigdemont. PP sources state that no party has contacted them to tempt them over investiture support and, in fact, the Spanish conservatives argue that the PSC has already made it clear that they will not seek PP support. Vox's Ignacio Garriga spoke in similar terms when he met with Josep Rull, although the far-right leader starts from the premise that he cannot support either the Socialist or the Junts leader because "they are the same".
The CUP: a 'no' to Puigdemont
Neither of the two candidates will be able to count on the support of the four deputies of the CUP, who have not yet found a way to have their own group in the Catalan chamber. The radical left wingers had already made their 'no' to Illa clear during the campaign, a position they have not budged from. However, at present they would also vote against a possible investiture of Carles Puigdemont, who, in the words of its leader, Laia Estrada, still "fantasizes" about a possible abstention by the Socialists to make him president. According to the Tarragona politician, Junts has not made any proposal to them nor have they negotiated a possible agreement with them for the investiture, unlike the situation for the Bureau of Parliament, where Rull was proclaimed president with the votes of ERC but also those of the CUP.
For their part, the other far-right party, Catalan Alliance (AC) would not give its two votes to Carles Puigdemont either. The Islamophobic group led by Sílvia Orriols has indicated that they are open to talking with "Catalan options", but that they would only support a candidate who works for the "immediate restoration of the Catalan state". In addition, they assert that immigration axis is a pillar that they need emphasised in order to negotiate a 'yes': "We work for a state model that preserves our identity, keeps our streets safe and protects our borders from the entry of criminals, repeat offenders or those who come to live off the work and effort of the Catalan taxpayer". What Orriols has ruled out is a vote in favour of Illa: "We will not support a Spanish nationalist government."
ERC criticizes Illa and Puigdemont for not being candidates
Both the CUP and the Comuns this Tuesday saw with good eyes that, if there is no candidate who has the necessary support to become president, an investiture debate should not be forced. This position, however, is not shared by the Catalan Republican Left. Ahead of Rull's meeting with the third largest parliamentary group, spokesperson Marta Vilalta reproached the PSC and Junts for the fact that neither of its candidates wants to undergo an investiture, and do not have the necessary supports. The ERC politician assured that this decision is "irresponsible" and asked for "democratic respect towards the institutions and citizens" who went to vote on May 12th. She has sent a message to Josep Rull, who has already announced that he does not intend to convene an investiture plenum if there is no willing candidate, calling on the speaker of Parliament to "encourage" the two parties to take the step of presenting themselves for the investiture.
On Monday, the new deputy speaker of the Parliament and ERC spokesperson, Raquel Sans, had already pointed out that investiture debates must be used to explain the presidential candidates' plans for Catalonia and this could be a good opportunity for both Illa and Puigdemont to detail their vision, reprimanding them for not having yet done so. The role of ERC is key in a possible investiture of Illa, who has already made it clear that his intention is to form a progressive majority with Comuns and Republicans. These negotiations, still commanded by Marta Rovira from Switzerland, catch the party at a very delicate moment after election defeat and with choices to be made about future leadership and approach. With the publication of a manifesto, already signed by around 600 party members, which is understood as a request to Oriol Junqueras not to run for the presidency again in November, this has become even more profound. For the time being, however, ERC have made clear their central condition for an investiture agreement: a unique financing plan for Catalonia, outside the common regime for Spain's autonomous communities.
The PSC and ERC open the ground for negotiation
In the midst of this discussion about funding - which the Catalan Socialists do not want to go beyond the common regime, since their own plan is for a tax consortium - the PSC and ERC have formally started negotiations this Tuesday for a possible investiture of Salvador Illa. A delegation of the negotiating teams of both parties met this morning in Barcelona and agreed to "continue working". The talks will continue throughout this week. For the Socialists, it is a priority to close an agreement with ERC so that the "progressive majority" that they want to materialize and that they see as the "only viable option" is possible.
A few days ago, voices from several parties believed that, if an agreement is reachable, it would likely by the end of July. But now, no one dares to rule out the possibility that an agreement might go all the way to the wire in late August. One factor in this is that the parties are exploring an understanding to stop activity in the chamber between August 8th and 18th. In the end, it will be on Wednesday at 4:30pm when Josep Rull will appear to announce the decision he has taken after listening to all the groups, and is almost sure to certify that there is no candidate willing to go to an investiture - and even that none of them have yet managed to add any votes outside their own party.