The latest survey from Spanish public research institute CIS predicts a victory to Pedro Sánchez's Socialists (PSOE) in a hypothetical Spanish election. The PSOE would reach 28.9% of the votes, a fall with respect to the November survey (31.2%) but one that does not benefit the largest opposition party, the Popular Party (PP), which stays at exactly the same level as a month ago, 19.1%.
However, the new feature of the December survey is the rise of the far-right party Vox, which after its strong showing in the Andalusian elections would reach 3.7% of the votes, a percentage which would theoretically be enough to give it representation in the Spanish Congress for the first time.
In third place are Ciudadanos (Cs) with 17.9% of the votes (0.3% down on the last CIS poll, where the party won 18.2%), and behind them, Podemos, with 14.9 % of the votes when all of the group's regional alliances are included, a significant drop from November when they polled at 18%. Vox would enter the Congress with 3.7% of the votes continuing the steady upward trend shown in the previous projections (rating at 1.3% in October, 2.5% in November, and 3.7% last month).
Meanwhile, among the Catalan parties contesting the Spanish elections, the Republican Left (ERC) would once again win in Catalonia, with a total of 4.7% (4.8% in November), and the Catalan European Democratic Party (PDeCAT) would recover six points to 1.4% of the votes (0.8%). En Comú Podem, whose percentage is included in the total Podemos figure above, would stay at the same level with 2.7% (2.8% in November).
Vox in Andalusia, from 2.4 to 4.6
The results that Vox obtained in the Andalusia election on December 2nd, when the extremists won 10.97% of votes and twelve seats, are reflected in a much more moderate way in this CIS survey, which estimates that the party would get the support of 4.6% of Andalusian voters in a Spain-wide election. Nevertheless, this is a significant increase with respect to the November CIS poll which predicted the party would win 2.4% in such a vote.
Unemployment and the political class, the main problems
According to the CIS, the 'political class' is regarded as the country's second most important problem by Spaniards, and although they are less concerned about it than unemployment, it is more worrying than corruption, fraud and economic problems. Unemployment is mentioned as the country's worst problem by 59.2% of those surveyed, slightly higher than a month ago, but below its average level for 2018.
The political class, on the other hand, is mentioned by 29.8% of respondents, and repeats the second placing among Spanish national problems it achieved in November, when it rated at 31.3%.