The 2023 Catalonia Opinion Poll carried out by the Institute of Political and Social Sciences (ICPS), a think tank in the orbit of the Catalan Socialists, reveals that Carles Puigdemont is the most preferred candidate to be president of Catalonia. When asked to give a single name as preferred head of the Generalitat government, without receiving any prompts from the interviewer, 16.7% of respondents suggested the exiled president and MEP, whose government led Catalonia into the independence referendum of October 1st, 2017.
After the Together for Catalonia (Junts) party founder, the second choice of Catalans was Puigdemont's former vice-president in 2017, Republican Left (ERC) leader Oriol Junqueras, who was selected by 12.8%. Third was current Catalan Socialist (PSC) head Salvador Illa. The current president of Catalonia, Pere Aragonès (ERC) came in fourth with 7.3%. However, in a question to which poll participants were not given a list of names to choose from, 35.6% said that they didn't know.
Among voters of his own party, Puigdemont was the preference of 65.7% of Junts supporters who took part in the poll, towering above the party's general secretary, Jordi Turull, with 4.9% and ERC's Oriol Junqueras, also obtaining support from 4.9% of Junts voters. As for the preferences of ERC voters, 34.1% of those surveyed named the president of the party, Oriol Junqueras, but second choice for Republican voters was the Junts founder - Puigdemont - who obtained 19.3% of support, significantly ahead of the current president of the Catalan government, Pere Aragonès, who was the choice of 16.9% of ERC supporters.
For Socialist voters, Salvador Illa was the first choice, with the support of 42.0%, but here again, cross-party preferences popped up: this time it was ERC's Junqueras who obtained a distant second place (7.8%) with his fellow Republican, president Pere Aragonès (3.9%) in third. Junqueras was also first choice for voters of the left-wing En Comú Podem, with 17.6% of the vote. Alejandro Fernández was the choice for 22.2% of the People's Party supporters. Meanwhile, voters for the left-wing, pro-independence CUP chose Puigdemont as their top pick for Catalan president, with 29.1% of support, much higher than any politician from a party which is currently undergoing a refoundation process; Dolors Sabater (9.1%) was in second place with CUP voters. Of Vox supporters, 25% chose their Catalan leader Ignacio Garriga as president, while 21.1% of people from Ciudadanos opted for the Socialist leader Illa.
ERC tops poll in voting intention
The ICPS poll places pro-independence ERC in first place in voting intentions for the elections to the Catalan Parliament, with an estimated 19.7%. The survey places the PSC in second position in terms of voting intention (16.4 %), ahead of Junts (15.6%). The Comuns were fourth (5.8%), followed by the CUP (4.2%), Vox (2.1%) and Cuidadanos (0.6%).
As for the voting intentions of Catalans in elections to the Spanish Congress, the poll estimates that the PSC would win with 28% of votes, up from the 22.4% of the total vote it recorded in last July's elections. At a significant distance, Junts would go from fifth to second place in votes, with 10.3% (7.2% in July), ahead of the Comuns, with 10.2% (9.1% in the last election) and ERC, with 8.6% (8.5%). In fifth place would be the PP, with 7.3%, followed by Vox (2.8%), CUP (1.7%) and Ciudadanos (0.3%).
Field work for the poll was carried out between Octoiber 31st and November 20th, coinciding with the accords between the Socialist and the Catalan pro-independence parties, followed by the investiture of Pedro Sánchez as Spanish prime minister. It should also be noted that, unlike most polls, the ICPS survey does not weight its results to compensate for indications of possible under-representation of some opinions in the sample.