Economist Xavier Sala-i-Martín does not mince his words. This well-known professor (New York's Columbia University, and Barcelona's Pompeu Fabra) is with us today to speak about his new book, "The invasion of the robots and other stories" (Penguin Random House, in Catalan) derived from his Catalan public TV series Economia en color. A book that, by the way, he will present next Tuesday at 7pm in Barcelona's Biblioteca Jaume Fuster. Before sitting down with us, however, he changes his jacket: he puts on his trademark bright green blazer. We begin speaking about Catalan politics, a subject on which he not only shows a great knowledge but also, at times, a heated passion.
In the book you explain that to make predictions about how the economy will perform is very difficult, and, to quote your words: “Making negative predictions in times of crisis can make them worse. Making positive predictions can help the economy to come out of recession. The public institutions know this [...] and make incredibly positive predictions when economic crises arrive. Not because they think that the economy will go well, but because they are attempting to manipulate people's expectations so that they do what the government wants them to do”. Is this happening the other way round, with the independence process? Do they give us pessimistic data so that we are afraid?
The institutions know that if people lose heart, they stop spending, companies stop investing and national consumption falls, so that the crisis is worsened. It is a vicious circle caused by expectations. They think that if they can convince the people that all is going well, it will go well.
Clearly, with the Catalan issue, the Spanish government decided that the best way to defeat the independence movement was to make the people of Catalonia panic, and the best way to do this was to make them think that the economy would collapse, that Catalonia can't live without Spain, the companies will leave. And they clearly used this strategy. The main part of this strategy was to force or induce [firms to move businesses addresses out of Catalonia] - we now know this, because the works council for the car manufacturer SEAT admitted it, that people from the monarchy went and asked SEAT to leave Catalonia. And SEAT didn't do so.
And did this take effect with other companies?
The companies that did leave are of two types: those that depend on Madrid, and financial companies. These latter ones left because bank panics were generated, not in Catalonia, but especially in Spain. But as I said this was a strategy: to cause panic via Spain's boycotts.
Who has really left Catalonia then?
In reality nobody has gone. Only the head offices, that is, where there is a secretary, and it doesn't even imply opening an office in another place. Not one single worker has lost a job. If anybody has lost their job from the independence process, it has been as a result of Spain imposing article 155. Changing business address has zero significance.
And changing their tax address?
Also, zero significance. The taxes that companies really pay are income tax and VAT. With the system we have, 50% of this stays in Catalonia and 50% goes to the state, and afterwards the state returns funds under a system that nobody understands, because there is a dose of arbitrariness by [Spanish treasury minister] Montoro who says: “I'll give you back whatever the hell I want”. So well, the VAT and the income tax, they continue to be paid where they were paid before, because not a single job has moved. It has not changed anything.
At the very most, it will change company taxes, but for the time being, the banks are not paying this. If we were independent, it would be a problem, but as in the end Montoro keeps all the money, what does it matter where you pay your taxes?
And so...?
And so, all this about the flight of businesses has been a hoax. We see it in the figures that are coming out now: exports have broken records, trade is increasing and Catalonia in general is growing.
The flight of businesses has been a hoax, a strategy to cause panic via Spain's boycotts
Last Thursday the Civil Guard carried out searches in the Catalan government palace and the offices of the cultural group Òmnium to find out how the referendum of 1st October was funded, and it all ended up with one person under arrest, who they afterwards set free. But how was the referendum funded?
I have no idea, but it shouldn't matter. If it was the Catalan government, it would be sovereign and they can spend the money as they see fit, what the Civil Guard says or a judge says should not matter. If Catalonia bought ballot boxes, there are regions of Spain that have their own ballot boxes. What's the problem then with Catalonia having its own ballot boxes? Is it because they don't like who we vote for? If Spain has become a dictatorship, being governed by a party that has been called a "criminal organisation" by prosecutors, we are losing democratic decency. You just can't do what the judges are doing now, keep people in prison for ideological reasons, accuse people of a crime [in Spain], but don't accuse them somewhere else. If you don't pursue them, you are prevaricating. Why don't they pursue Puigdemont? Because they know he isn't a criminal, that their accusations are false, because they know they are manipulating the state institutions which should protect all of us against abuses.
And abroad, what are they saying?
Spain has become an international joke. It is losing all the international prestige it had. People in other countries are laughing their asses off at Spain. Look what happened: Pep Guardiola put on a yellow ribbon and all of England was turned against Spain. I have experienced it in my own skin: they banned a lecture of mine in Stockholm and another one in Angola, sending a gentleman from the Spanish embassy to say that I could not speak. By that, what I mean is that they have attempted to ban things, they have tried to stop this from making any impact around the world, they have attempted to silence it. Why are they so afraid of people speaking out? Because they know that they are doing things badly. They want to prevent people from speaking up and they have made themselves into an international laughing stock.
I have experienced it in my own skin: Spain banned a lecture of mine in Stockholm and another one in Angola, sending a gentleman from the Spanish embassy to say that I could not speak
Will the European Union save us?
The answer is no. But I would like everybody to remember one thing: India managed to become independent from the English because Gandhi, after they banned him from doing so, continued to make salt. And we are making salt, and we have to continue doing so.
Keep on provoking the Spanish state to go too far. Just as they hit Gandhi, just as they put Mandela in prison. Repressive states go too far, and civilized people turn against their oppressors, and the Spanish state has become an oppressive state.
The Spanish state has become an oppressive state, and we have to keep on provoking them to go too far. So that people outside Spain see it. We have to continue making salt
Do you believe that freedom of expression exists in Spain?
In the United States, the society really loves their homeland. Twenty years ago, in Texas, some people burned the American flag, and the supreme court went out and said that even burning the American flag is freedom of expression. Freedom of expression appears when people do things that we do not like. It is very easy to defend freedom of expression when you like what is being expressed. We have to continue making salt.
The more they themselves violate their own constitution, and human rights. I mean: prohibit a clown nose. One day they'll wake up and wonder: did we go too far? Send rappers to prison for singing songs. Put people in preventive prison because they stood on top of a car, even if it had been true that the damage to that car was just from the two Jordis, the independence leaders, getting on top of it (not from the journalists who did the same earlier), can you keep them in prison for six months for that? It makes no sense, and all the time there are more Spanish judges and lawyers who are saying that... Those men are in a jail because they got on top of a police car. Beyond that, if you listen to what they were saying, they were telling the crowd to leave. But, six months prison for climbing on a police car! Explain that to people.
What is the importance of the fact that Catalonia does not have a government?
What would change if we had a government? The state would continue committing excesses in the same way. The biggest things have happened when we had a government: the violence of the 1st October, the intervention in the Catalan economics ministry, etcetera. The backward movement of democracy has been going on for some time: they have been taking competences away from Catalonia, they are cutting off money, and the fiscal deficit keeps on rising. It was designed long ago, and to anyone who thinks that if we have a government it will stop: it's a lie.
On the other hand, a great controversy has been created by the fact that the Catalan National Assembly (ANC) removed Antonio Baños from their list of candidates because he took part in a media chat programme. You have denounced this publicly. What are they worried about?
The ANC says that the rule was broken and Baños took part in a chat programme. Well, excuse me, but it seems a stupid rule to me and it has to be disputed. Do we not want people to have information? Wouldn't the goal be for everybody to know? Not only does there have to be transparency but there has to be knowledge. These rules are awful.