The Spanish government's own public polling agency, the CIS has given a slap in the face to Pedro Sánchez's PSOE in its latest poll on Spanish electoral preferences, which maintains the Socialist party as the winner of a hypothetical general election, but places their conservative rivals the PP less than two percent behind. According to the poll published this Wednesday, the PSOE would win 29.1% of votes in such an election, while the party led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo would obtain 27.2% of public support. In addition, this survey shows support growing for Sumar (12.3%), placing Yolanda Díaz's new left-wing platform ahead of Vox (10.6%) even without adding in votes of Unidas Podemos (6.1%) which might be end up being combined in electoral circumstances. Ciudadanos would take only 2.3% of the votes. Spain's next general election is due before the end of the year.
Spanish party polling levels, according to the CIS poll (Select an option at top to show the May 2023 poll, the November 2019 general election results, or both)
As for the pro-independence parties, the Republican Left (ERC) remains the favourite grouping of Catalans who seek a sovereignest option, says the CIS, with 2.4% of the votes at Spanish level in a hypothetical election. The CIS places Together for Catalonia (Junts) as second largest pro-independence force with 1.2% of support; and the CUP in third position with 0.7%. On the other hand, in the Basque Country, the Basque Nationalists PNV and pro-independence Bildu are tied, obtaining 0.9% of the votes each. The survey that the CIS published this Wednesday was carried out between May 3rd and 8th. In other words, the current municipal election campaign had not yet begun and, for example, Pedro Sánchez had not yet gone on his official trip to Washington, nor had Bildu's electoral lists containing some former ETA members become known.
However, none of the leaders of the Spanish parties gets a pass mark from the public. The highest rated is the Sumar leader, Yolanda Díaz, with 4.79. Behind her is the current Spanish PM, Pedro Sánchez, with 4.39. In third place is Íñigo Errejón (Más País), with 4.12, and in fourth position is the leader of the PP, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, with 4.11. The general secretary of Podemos only gets a 3.36, and the leader of Vox, Santiago Abascal, ranks last on the list with 2.86. When asked who they would prefer to be Spanish prime minister, 20.7% of respondents point to Pedro Sánchez, while 15% opt for Alberto Núñez Feijóo.
The previous public opinion barometer was marked by the debut of Yolanda Díaz in the survey. The current second-ranked deputy PM of the Spanish government made her debut by finishing ahead of Podemos and losing votes to the PSOE. The CIS awarded 10.6% of votes to the platform of current labour minister Díaz, and 6.7% to the party of Ione Belarra and Irene Montero. As a result of the arrival of Sumar on the Spanish political scene, Pedro Sánchez dropped more than two-tenths of a percent compared to March, reaching a total of 30.4% of support. However, Alberto Núñez Feijóo also lost momentum subsequently and suffered a decline, standing at 26.1% in vote estimation.
The previous survey thus placed the PSOE in first place on the scoreboard, with 30.4% of the votes. In second place was the PP, with 26.1% of the supports; ahead of Vox (11.1%), Sumar (10.6%), Unidas Podemos (6.7%) and Ciudadanos (2.1%). As for the Catalan pro-independence parties, ERC maintained the lead with 2.8% of the votes, Junts were second with 1%, and the CUP made third with 0.6% of support as a percentage of the total Spanish vote. In the same way, the Basque Nationalists got more votes (1.2%) than Bildu (0.9%).
CIS picks for 28th March: Ayuso runs riot, and the PSOE holds the Valencian Country
The survey published by the CIS this Wednesday has arrived with only 11 days before the 28th May elections, which are municipal across the Spanish state and also serve to elect new autonomous communities governments in part of Spain. Last week, the CIS published the results of a survey predicting, precisely, how these elections in less than two weeks will conclude. Beyond assessing that Ada Colau is the favourite in Barcelona to be returned as mayor and that Jaume Collboni's PSC could gain sufficient support to form a government with the leader of the Comuns, the poll also left an interesting picture of Spanish politics.
First of all, it calculated that the PP's Isabel Díaz Ayuso is on the verge of an absolute majority in the Community of Madrid: expected to win 61-70 deputies, when only 65 are needed for an absolute majority in the regional assembly. The CIS also published a survey in which Socialist leader Ximo Puig had good prospects for repeating his pacted-presidency of the Generalitat of the Valencian Country.
Evolution of CIS poll results for a hypothetical Spanish general election
It also predicted good prospects for the PSOE in the Balearic Islands, since the incumbent president of the islands, Francina Armengol, could renew the majority with left wing support which she won in 2015. However, the survey left the future of Aragon up in the air, and it is not clear who would win the elections: whether the PP list of candidate Jorge Azcón could break through, or whether the PSOE under incumbent Javier Lambán will prevail. With a fragmented parliament, the future shape of governing pacts is also an unknown quantity.