This Thursday morning at 10am, the Spanish Congress of Deputies sits down to a knife-edge vote to elect its speaker and its governing organ, the Bureau, the first procedure of the fifteenth Spanish legislature since the end of the Franco dictatorship. It will be an extremely close vote, a true parliamentary thriller which will require precise coordination between the parliamentary groups. It could be won by a hair's breadth. Or even less: a single mistake or distraction in a complex voting process could turn the political tide. Faced with a scenario in which uncertainty reigns, the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) will present Francina Armengol as candidate for the speaker's position, while the People's Party (PP) will opt for its current spokesperson in Congress, Cuca Gamarra. The vote is just hours away and negotiators are making the most of the last conversations. At this point in the movie, the blocs of the left and the right are tied at 171 seats, so the seven deputies of Together for Catalonia (Junts) or, on the other hand, the single deputy of the centre-right Canary Islands party Coalició Canària (CC) could have the balance in their hands.
The frantic mood made itself felt this Wednesday in the lower house. You could feel the nervousness among the parties that dominate the Spanish political arena. Time is running out and no one is guaranteed a majority to control the governing body for the parliamentary schedule, which has remained in the air since the results of the July 23rd general election. And what happens this Thursday will be a symptom or a declaration of intent by all those involved on the outlook for the possible next steps: a hypothetical investiture of a new government or a possible repeat election. Before the constitutent session starts at 10am, Congress will be closely monitoring the party executive meeting that Junts has called for this Thursday, two hours earlier.
Sánchez attempts to seduce with Catalan
Pedro Sánchez's strategy of seduction of Junts started with the choice of Francina Armengol to replace Meritxell Batet, outgoing speaker, and this Wednesday he maintained his gestures by committing his party to promotion of the use of Catalan in the European institutions. "We will promote its use in community institutions as a commitment that I will deploy during the Spanish presidency of the European Union", he announced this Wednesday. However, as the secretary general of the Catalan Republican Left (ERC), Marta Rovira, pointed out in a tweet, the proposal to promote co-official languages in Europe is not new, not by a long shot, because the Catalan and Spanish governments already agreed to this in the dialogue table meeting of July 2022.
This Wednesday at noon, Sánchez went to the Congress of Deputies to harangue his MPs, whom he has entrusted to be "the voice of alert" against the "inward turning" grouping of the PP and far-right Vox. PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo did much the same thing this afternoon: in a speech claiming himself to have been the winner of the July 23rd election, the PP leader showed himself convinced that king Felipe VI - who has the power of decision on the matter - will instruct him to present himself for investiture as new prime minister of Spain, given that his party won the most votes and seats - although far from a majority - in the election. He thinks he has the legitimacy. "The head of state will act as he has always done, in accordance with the law, exercising constitutional powers and only at the service of the Spaniards", said the Galician politican. The PP calculates that it has "171-172 deputies" which is more than the majority that Pedro Sánchez still has to build, "with parties that want to break up Spain".
Why are the Junts votes important?
To understand the importance of the seven Junts votes in this Thursday's decisions, you need to get out the calculator. The bloc on the left brings together the 121 seats of the PSOE, the 31 of left-wing platform Sumar, probably the 7 of ERC, the 6 of the Basque pro-independence party Bildu, presumably also the 5 of the Basque Nationalists, the PNV, and the solitary seat of the Galician nationalists, the BNG. Opposite them will be the 137 of the PP, the 33 of Vox and the single deputy of the conservative Unió del Poble Navarrès. 171 against 171. Like that, no one would get an absolute majority in the first round (which requires 176 votes in favour) and the result would have to be decided by a simple majority - more votes for than against - in the second round. In this second ballot, the only elements which seem to be up for grabs are the 7 of Junts and the single deputy of Coalició Canària (CC). The support of the Catalan party for Francina Armengol would solve the equation for the Socialists but this Wednesday, Carlos Puigdemont was explaining his party's distrust of PSOE promises unless backed by "verifiable actions". And an abstention from Junts would mean that the vote of the Canarian party would be critical to the outcome.
On that last note, it is worth remembering that the Coalició Canària has just signed a coalition agreement with the PP for a regional government in the island group, following the autonomous community elections of May 28th. With this context, the CC leaders are committed to the PNV getting a place on the Bureau to break the bloc dynamics, without distinguishing to whom they have offered this possibility, whether to the PSOE or the PP. The Socialists discard it. If the CC votes for Gamarra and Junts abstains, the speaker's post would end up in the hands of the PP. On the other hand, if the Canarian group do not break the tie and the dead heat is perpetuated, the rules of the chamber establish that the vote between the two candidates must be repeated until one obtains more support than the other.