Salvador Illa will be the winner of the 2024 Catalan elections, but the three pro-independence parties could reach an absolute majority in Parliament, according to the TV3 and RTVE survey carried out this Sunday by Sigma Dos, released as the polls closed at 8pm. The survey indicates that the Catalan Socialists (PSC) would prevail with 27.1% of the vote, which would translate to between 37 and 40 seats, so that it would get between 4 and 7 more seats than it had. The second position would go to Junts+ Puigdemont for Catalonia, which would obtain 22.1% of votes and between 33 and 36 deputies. The Catalan Republican Left (ERC) would drop to third position with 17% of the votes, which would translate into between 24 and 27 seats, between six and nine less than at present.
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The People's Party (PP) would manage to significantly improve its representation in Parliament, getting 8.1% of the vote, and between 9 and 12 seats, tripling its current representation, while Vox would be the fifth largest party, with 7.2% of the vote and between 10 and 11 seats. The left-wing parties, the Comuns and the pro-independence CUP, would suffer a slight decline. The former, led by Jéssica Albiach would obtain 6.2% of the votes, which would translate into between 6 and 7 seats and the CUP would win 5.5% of the votes and between 6 and 8 seats. Finally, according to this survey, the far-right Catalan Alliance would manage to enter Parliament with between 1 and 3 deputies, since it would get 3.2% of the votes.
Pro-Independence parties could retain an majority of seats in Parliament
With these results, Salvador Illa is not guaranteed the government, since the pro-independence bloc could still hold an absolute majority. If the numbers on the upper range of the predictions turn out to be accurate, Junts, ERC and the CUP would get 71 deputies, three more than the 68 that mark the absolute majority. On the other hand, pro-independence forces might get just 63 seats, and would therefore be five short of the absolute majority needed to form a government.